Sorry for the radio silence yesterday.  I went to the Nats game, which, I have to say, was as abysmal a game as I think I’ve ever seen.  The “final” score was 10-10, after the game was rained out in the bottom of the 11th inning.

In any case, back for more blogging goodness today.  To start, a couple of predictions, based more on gut than anything else.

1.  Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm will be Obama’s choice for the Supreme Court.

2.   Joe Sestak will win the Democratic nomination for Senator in Pennsylvania, easily defeating Arlen Specter. Specter will then mull a run as a third party candidate.  If Pat Toomey is the Republican nominee and Specter runs, Cantor will win.  If Specter doesn’t run, Sestak wins.  If Tom Ridge is the Republican nominee, Sestak will win in either scenario, as conservative Republicans will stay at home rather than vote for the pro-choice Ridge, who many see as just another RINO.

I know the second prediction goes against the conventional wisdom, which argues that Ridge is a better candidate than Sestak, but I think that ignores the reality that conservative Republicans don’t want victory — if they did, Specter wouldn’t have been behind by 21 points in that Rassmussen poll — they want ideological purity.  They’ll flock to the polls to support Toomey, but lose interest in a Ridge candidacy.

Specter doesn’t have any credibility anymore.  He’s done, and I think Democrats know it.  Sestak will win easily, much as Ned Lamont easily beat Joe Lieberman.  If Specter decides to run as an independent and Toomey is the Republican candidate, Toomey wins because Specter splits the moderate-liberal vote.  If Ridge is the Republican candidate and Specter runs, you’re talking about three moderates running.  In that scenario, conservative Republicans won’t want any of the three, while Democrats will stick with Sestak to win the seat.  And Specter will see his support shrink and shrink until he is a factor only if Toomey is the candidate.

Ironic, isn’t it?  Specter’s decision to bolt probably did as much to kill his chances as staying would have.  And if he bolts. loses the primary, and still runs, the only thing he’ll do is significantly increase the chances of the very guy that caused him to leave the Republican Party.

UPDATE:  Readers Hannah and Jim note that Pennsylvania has a sore losers law, which means Specter can’t run in the general if he loses in the primary.  Knowing Specter, he’ll challenge its constitutionality, claiming it’s a violation of his right to get re-elected no matter what the cost to his integrity free speech.

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