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26 October 2008 Charles J. Brown
11:55 am

Worst. Pep. Talk. Ever.


Steve Schmidt, trying to rally the McCain troops in Crystal City:

Being part of an effort that fails does not make you a loser; it makes you a competitor. . . .What makes you a loser is curling up into the fetal position at a time of adversity. The only thing that would ever define anyone as a loser is to quit before it is over.

I think he was trying to paraphrase Teddy Roosevelt’s famous dictum that if someone fails, “at least he fails while daring greatly.”  Somehow, I don’t think he pulled it off.

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23 September 2008 Charles J. Brown
04:45 pm

The Quiet Courage of Steve Schmidt


Priceless:

Sadly, I can’t remember where I first saw this, so hat tip to whomever it was.

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15 September 2008 Charles J. Brown
09:45 am

McCain: Whatever. It. Takes.


In a number of previous posts, particularly back in July, I suggested that McCain’s campaign had been taken over by Steve Schmidt and a bunch of other Rovians, that he was now letting the very people who smeared him back in 2000 run his campaign.  I wondered how he could be in bed with such people.

Then something I read during the latest kerfuffle around his campaign’s lies got me thinking about a passage in Christopher Buckley’s most recent novel, Boomsday.  One of the main characters is Randolph K. Jepperson, who is loosely modeled on John Kerry.  There is one scene early in the book, which takes place after Jepperson has lost his first run for the Senate, that reminds me of the McCain we’re seeing now:

[After the defeat, p]eople around Randoph K. Jepperson remarked on the change that came over him.  He went into what is usually called “seclusion,” with no movie-star girlfriend or ex-rocker’s wife.  When he emerged, he had a look in his eyes that one staffer called “kinda spooky.”

On his first day back in Congress, he fired everyone in his office. . . . He replaced his loyal staff with the equivalent of Capitol Hill mercenaries.  He lured away seasoned pros from other congressional offices, paying above-standard salaries.  He hired expensive lobbyists and operatives from K Street; trade association sharks and hired guns; legislative dogs of war.  By the time his restaffing was complete, his office colleagues were referring to his office as “the Death Star.”

When Randy called Terry several weeks after his defeat, Terry assumed it was to fire him, too.  But instead, in a voice that Terry also thought kinda spooky, “Next time we win.  Whatever. It. Takes.”

Sound familiar?  John McCain concluded after the 2000 race that all politicians are mean and nasty, and that if he wanted to win, he had to be meaner, nastier, and faster.  Think of it as a perversion of the OODA loop:

The OODA loop (for Observe, Orient, Decide and Act) is a concept applied. . . .at [the] strategic level in both the military and commercial operations. . . . [D]ecision-making occurs in a recurring cycle of observe-orient-decide-act. An entity (either an individual or an organization) that can process this cycle quickly, observing and reacting to unfolding events more rapidly than an opponent, can thereby “get inside” the opponent’s decision cycle and gain a military or business advantage.

That pretty much describes McCain’s strategy right now.

So the problem isn’t that John McCain is surrounded by Rovians.  The problem is that he has become the Rovian-in-Chief.

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25 August 2008 Charles J. Brown
09:45 am

Has Steve Schmidt Run out of Ideas? (#2 of 2)


Is McCain’s attack messaging machine grinding to a halt?  Steve Schmidt, McCain’s new guru, has been on a roll lately, but those days may be coming to an end.  Earlier today, we looked at the events of the past few days and how the McCain campaign has responded.

Now let’s examine how these responses fit into Schmidt’s broader strategy.

Over the past few weeks, the mainstream media have embraced Schmidt as the newest political genius, crediting him with bringing new message discipline to the campaign and boosting McCain in the polls.  Perhaps the best example is a glowing profile by Lois Romano that ran in Thursday’s Washington Post-dated.  Romano even scored a quote from Schmidt’s political mentor, Karl Rove:

“Since the changes, things are happening,” observes Karl Rove, architect of George W. Bush’s presidential races. “A guy who’d been in and out of the campaign for months told me he quickly saw a new crispness and order to the operation. He knew it when he walked in one day and there was a large calendar with daily message points plotted for several weeks — a sign of strategic thinking that hadn’t been so evident before.

Like Rove, Schmidt knows how to attack an opponent’s strength and turn it into a weakness.  His “celebrity” attacks clearly had a bigger impact on the race than Democrats expected — not swiftboat-caliber damage, but significant nonetheless.

The ads hammer home two key messages:  that Obama is more concerned with celebrity than leadership, and that he is not ready to lead. Schmidt also has McCain reinforce these themes in campaign appearances — most infamously when he said that Obama would be willing to lose the war to win the election.

It’s an effective strategy, helping to narrow significantly the gap between the two candidates.  But it’s not yet clear whether it will have any lasting impact on the race.  The celebrity meme clearly is not as effective as similar attacks in the past, and there’s already evidence that people are tuning out.  To put it another way, associating Obama with Britney is proving to have a far shorter shelf life than swiftboating or flip-flops.

Despite that — and despite the fact that the ads have also driven up McCain’s own negatives — Schmidt clearly thinks they’re working:  over the past three weeks, the campaign has put out three four five variations on the celebrity theme: “Celeb” “The One,” “Painful,” “Fan Club,” and just the other day, the (unintentionally) hilariously named “The One II.”

You could interpret this as message discipline, but there’s also another, equally plausible way to look at it:  Steve Schmidt has run out of ideas.

The entire McCain messaging operation is now built around the celebrity ads. Yes, there are other commercials, but they use older themes that the campaign adopted long before Schmidt took control:  the more positive,biographical clips and the “look who has criticized Obama and/or praised McCain” ads.  Neither has proven effective.

So Schmidt may be capable, but it looks like he’s also a one-trick pony. “Celebrity” is the only message that has worked.  So the campaign has started using it over and over and over again, to a point where no one is paying attention anymore.  And as any advertising expert can tell you, the only thing worse than an underperforming brand is an overexposed one.

The reality is that message discipline does not necessarily translate into adaptability or agility.  Schmidt may be focused, but he has not yet demonstrated the capacity to develop smart, effective ads that respond effectively to breaking events.  Yes, he and his team produced three ads in roughly 36 hours, but none of them have resonated.  And perhaps more importantly, none have managed to reverse the shift in momentum brought on by Estategate and Biden.

Schmidt still has time, and it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Obama may give him the ammunition he needs to put his candidate in the White House.  But if this is all he has — if there really is no second act, then McCain may discover that Schmidt’s greatest strength — message discipline — may also be a weakness that the Obama campaign will be able to exploit to its considerable advantage.

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25 August 2008 Charles J. Brown
08:45 am

Has Steve Schmidt Run Out of Ideas? (#1 of 2)


Is McCain’s attack messaging machine grinding to a halt?  Steve Schmidt, McCain’s new guru, has been on a roll lately, but those days may be coming to an end.  We’ll cover this question in two posts.  Part One will look at the events of the past few days and how the McCain campaign has responded.  Part two will look at how these responses fit into Schmidt’s broader strategy.

We’ll start with the past week, which really was the worst one McCain has had in quite a while.

First came Estategage, which painted McCain as rich and out-of-touch, a story so good that, as Ezra Klein speculates, it probably convinced the Obama team to delay the VP announcement by as much as 36 hours.

How did the McCain campaign respond?  First, they suggested that Obama was attacking Cindy (which just made McCain look bad).  Then they played the POW card.  Finally, they announced that the ad meant the “gloves were coming off,” and that everything in Obama’s past — Rezko, Wright, and other issues raised during the primaries — were now fair game.

In the end, however, the knuckle-baring consisted of only one (albeit particularly nasty) commercial, which suggests, falsely, that Tony Rezko helped the Obamas buy their (one and only) home, in return for which Rezko got certain political favors.  The ad was widely panned (with the strange exception of Mark Halperin on ABC this morning) and did nothing to slow the “McCain is rich and out of touch” meme.

Next came Obama’s selection of Biden, who by many accounts, is the Republicans’ worst VP nightmare.  Biden is smart, articulate, funny and capable of shredding opponents.  (My favorite:  “There are only three things [Rudy Giuliani] mentions in a sentence:  a noun, a verb, and 9/11.”)  We saw his talents on display Saturday, when he said that McCain couldn’t decide which kitchen table to sit at.

The McCain team responded to the news with a new commercial showing Biden criticizing Obama and praising McCain:

This ad did get some attention on the Intertubes (500,000 YouTube hits), but most of the mainstream media ignored it or mentioned it only in passing (and as I’ve noted in the past, most viewers of McCain YouTube videos appear to be Obama supporters).  Furthermore, this approach leaves McCain pretty vulnerable should he choose Mitt Romney as his running mate:  there are dozens of Romney quotes attacking McCain that are far worse than anything Biden said about Obama.

Now we have what appears to be a transparent attempt to woo disaffected Hillary voters:

Nate Silver highlights just how problematic this ad is:

I could see the ad being very effective. But it also tosses a big softball to Hillary Clinton, who will speak to a national audience on Tuesday. The risk to the Republicans can be summarized in five words: “Shame on You, John McCain”. A finger-wagging, how-dare-you moment by either of the Clintons at the convention — but especially Hillary — could be both effective and therapeutic, especially when coupled with a reminder that McCain voted against measures like SCHIP (and voted to impeach her husband).

As Nate predicted, the Hillary camp didn’t take much time to fire back:

Hillary Clinton’s support of Barack Obama is clear. She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn’t. It’s interesting how those remarks didn’t make it into his ad.

All good points, but here’s one they miss:  in the past twenty-four hours, the McCain campaign has produced two commercials: one that suggests Obama was too thin-skinned to pick Hillary because of her past criticism of him, and one that highlights Joe Biden’s criticisms of Obama.  So if you follow McCain’s own logic, Obama passed over Hillary because of her past critical comments. . .in order to pick someone who made equally if not more critical comments.

Steve Schmidt has never let consistency get in the way of a good story, but self-rebuttals are a bit too much, even for him.

More on this a bit later.

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13 August 2008 Charles J. Brown
03:40 pm

McCain: “Negative? Bah Humbug.”


In an interview today with NPR’s Renee Montagne, presumptive Republican nominee Grumpy McGrumperson John McCain denied that he’s running a negative campaign:

MONTAGNE:  So, to move on to domestic questions, Steve Schmidt, who is running your campaign, has said something kind of simple and understandable. He said that a campaign needs one positive message about its candidate and then one good, strong negative message about the opponent. Your camp —

McCAIN: I never heard that statement, and I’d have to know who attributed it to him before I would agree with that. We’re not sending any negative message in our campaign. We’re drawing differences in positions between myself and Sen. Obama, which are significant. He wants to raise taxes; I want to keep them low. He doesn’t want to drill offshore or have nuclear power; I want both. I’ve never heard Steve Schmidt say we need a negative message in the campaign.

MONTAGNE:  I’m quoting The Wall Street Journal here.

McCAIN: I’ve run many, many campaigns, and I have never believed that we need a strong negative message. And I’ve been in –-

MONTAGNE:  However, do you not consider it a negative message, though, when a campaign ad goes on TV that blames your opponent, Barack Obama, for high gas prices or –-

McCAIN: I believe strongly that if you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem. And he voted for the energy bill that had all kind of tax breaks and giveaways for the oil companies. I believe if you’re not part of the solution, you are part of the problem. And it’s a big problem in America today.

MONTAGNE:  And are you comfortable with ads where your opponent is being compared to Paris Hilton?

McCAIN: I’m very comfortable with my campaign. And I strongly recommend that people who don’t find humor in that relax, turn off the computer and go on it and get some fresh air and try to regain some —

MONTAGNE:  Well, Paris Hilton found some humor in it.

McCAIN: Yeah, sure.

He’s not negative, he’s grumpy!  And apparently when it comes to the Paris Hilton response ad, McCain can’t even take his own advice and “relax, turn off the computer and. . .get some fresh air.”

Of course, in the case of John McCain, he never learned how to turn on the computer, so it really shouldn’t be a problem.

Photo:  Via sloomis08, using a Creative Commons license.

Hat tip:  Matt DeLong at Washington Independent

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24 July 2008 Charles J. Brown
07:24 pm

Heute sind wir alle Amerikaner (Obama in Berlin)


I’ve spent a good part of the afternoon watching, listening to, reading, digesting, and reviewing other responses to Obama’s speech in Berlin today.  Not surprisingly, almost every commentator has reached a different conclusion, from “a stupendous ride” to “cliché[d], from “liberal internationalism” to “neoconservativsm with a human face.”

It was not his best speech, but it was a good one. And it was great to watch.  I loved hearing an American stand before Europeans and express clearly and concisely the idea that American values are global values, and vice versa.  I was thrilled to watch the crowd react so joyously.  I was delighted to hear him challenge Europeans on issues ranging from xenophobia to Afghanistan.  And after reading the text of the speech, I was pleased to see such a concrete expression of my own foreign policy views — what I would call either hard-headed internationalism or realistic globalism.

Someday, future historians may write that Obama’s speech marked the rebirth of good feelings between America and Europe, that it helped bring to an end to five-plus years of European anger towards and resentment of the United States.  Perhaps Obama’s speech will be remembered as the moment when the sentiments of Jean Marie Colombani’s famous editorial in the September 13, 2001 issue of Le Monde (”Nous Sommes Tous Americains”) returned, albeit as “Heute sind wir alle Amerikaner.”

And yet this afternoon, my main emotion is disquiet.  I find my hopes not nearly as strong as my fears.  I know neither I nor the rest of the pundit class were Obama’s target audience.  But the problem is, neither were the 200,000 Berliners who flocked to see him today. The people who really matter are the ones who will only see short clips of the speech on television, or who will only hear about it from their favorite talk radio mandarins:  average Americans, most of whom not only haven’t been to Europe, but also have no desire to go there.

What scares me is that the Berlin speech hurt Obama far more than it helped him, and that since it was the last event of his trip, it will overshadow his very real triumphs in Afghanistan and Iraq.  As I’ve noted before, most Americans view Europeans with a mix of suspicion and resentment.  There’s a reason that “cheese eating surrender monkeys” has become part of our popular lexicon.  And I have to think that the recent precipitous fall of the dollar against the Euro hasn’t helped matters.

But what worries me the most is that as Obama wowed the world, John McCain was sitting pretty in Ohio.  Since Obama left the States, McCain has grown increasingly bitter and nasty.  And now, much like Hillary Clinton before him, he appears increasingly willing to appeal to the worst devils of our nature.

This is what his campaign had to say today in response to Obama’s speech:

While Barack Obama took a premature victory lap today in the heart of Berlin, proclaiming himself a ‘citizen of the world,’ John McCain continued to make his case to the American citizens who will decide this election. Barack Obama offered eloquent praise for this country, but the contrast is clear. John McCain has dedicated his life to serving, improving and protecting America. Barack Obama spent an afternoon talking about it.

In less than three weeks, John McCain has transformed himself from an international statesman to an angry white male.  He has gone from desiring a debate on the issues to mounting a wholesale attack on Obama’s character.  He sounds increasingly desperate, which I find odd, given that the national polls have him only two to six points behind and many battleground state polls have him gaining.

I’m beginning to wonder whether the right word isn’t desperate, but rather cunning.

I don’t think it is a coincidence that this turn began largely after Steve Schmidt took over as McCain’s chief strategist.  Schmidt is a Rovian through and through; he believes that, as a Wall Street Journal profile of him put it recently, “a campaign needs one positive message about its own candidate, and one negative message about the opponent.”  It’s becoming increasingly evident that for Schmidt (and by extension McCain), the combination that’s working best is McCain as a prototypical American hero and Obama as the “other.”  It is, to paraphrase Rick Perlstein, straight out of Nixon’s “silent majority” playbook.

Just look at some of the moves we’ve seen since Obama clinched the nomination:  a commercial that describes McCain as “The American President Americans have been waiting for;” online ads that place photos of Obama side-by-side with Castro and Ahmadinejad; statements from campaign surrogates (too numerous to link to) questioning Obama’s priorities and even his patriotism; and McCain himself, in a statement that more than one commentator called unprecedented in the recent political history, suggesting that Obama is willing to lose a war to win a campaign.

I keep hoping that this is a temporary manifestation of McCain’s legendary temper.  I keep thinking that once McCain calms down about Maliki’s endorsement of the Obama timetable, we’ll see a return to the principled politician that so many Americans came to know and love.

But the more he and his campaign pursue this line of argument, the more I am convinced  that this is the real McCain, and that the happy warrior of the Straight Talk Express is nothing but a myth.

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