01:45 pm
The Transition
If, as expected, Barack Obama is elected in ten days, attention will turn almost immediately to the transition. Several friends close to the Obama campaign have shared some of the speculation they’ve heard on who will be named to Obama’s foreign policy team. Several other bloggers, including Steve Clemons and Marc Ambinder, have heard similar rumblings.
There are two problems with such rumors. First, as one of the commenters over at Steve’s site noted, they usually are little more than trial balloons designed to find out what folks think of a particular candidate. Perhaps the best recent example of this were the stories that Evan Bayh was a sure thing for Obama’s VP.
Second, as one of my friends said to me recently, “people are anxious about Obama winning, but they’re just as (if not more) anxious about whether they’re going to be offered a job.” I’ve heard that too — in fact, it’s not just concern about being offered a job, but also worrying about whether they’ll be offered the right kind of job. If past is prologue, it is often the candidate who starts the rumor in order to advance his or her own cause. Most of the time, it doesn’t work.
Given the degree to which the Obama team has managed to remain leak-free so far, I find it hard to believe that its discipline would start breaking down now, especially given the fact that, as Ambinder reported, most senior campaign staff have excluded themselves from transition deliberations in order to remain focused on winning the election. In addition, Obama remains focused on the campaign, meaning he is unlikely to havesigned off on any of these appointments.
One rumor I’ve heard (as has Steve) is that Obama will announce a number of key appointments as early as Friday, November 7th in order to speed up public vetting and, to the degree possible, Senate confirmation. If that’s the case, I’m guessing that any announcement will be limited to the national security team (State, Defense, National Security Advisor), the Attorney-General, and the Secretaries of Homeland Security and Treasury.
I’ll leave speculation on the last three to others more qualified than me, but I would like to offer my thoughts on who is (and who should be) on the short list for the first three (as well as their Deputies and the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations). To be clear, this is more speculation than reporting.
Secretary of Defense: The most likely scenario has Obama keeping current SecDef Robert Gates for at least one year, and appointing a key Obama team member as Deputy Secretary — probably either Richard Danzig , who was Secretary of the Navy under Clinton, or Scott Gration, who is a retired three-star general. The deputy will then step in after learning the ropes. The other strong contender is Rhode Island Senator Jack Reed, but I would be surprised if Gates doesn’t stay for at least six months. The long-shot outsider is Wesley Clark, who has not played a prominent role in the Obama campaign.
National Security Advisor: The safe money is on Susan Rice, who has been one of Obama’s top foreign policy aides during the campaign, and has managed the 300-odd (now probably closer to 600) members of the two dozen foreign policy advisory teams. Susan would be a fine choice, but I’m not sure that she’s a lock. Some are suggesting Gregory Craig, who headed policy planning in State under Clinton and served as one of Clinton’s attorneys during the impeachment trial (only to break with the Clintons fairly early in the campaign). Although that certainly is plausible, I think Craig may be a better fit as Deputy Secretary at State. I’ve heard through the grapevine that James Steinberg, who currently is managing the foreign policy transition team and who served as Deputy National Security Advisor in the Clinton Administration, also is a strong contender.
Should either Craig or Steinberg get the top post, then Rice probably would be named Deputy National Security Advisor (the other two are unlikely to serve in that role). Other possible candidates include Dennis McDonough, who formerly served as Tom Daschle’s chief foreign policy advisor; Mark Lippert, who has been Obama’s chief foreign policy aide in the Senate; and Sarah Sewell, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Peacekeeping Operations in the Clinton Administration. Samantha Power, who also served on Obama’s staff is a long-shot, but I think she’s more likely to be named Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor (she would be an outstanding choice). All four have been part of Obama’s inner circle of foreign policy advisors (although Power had to resign after calling Hillary a “monster”), but none are senior enough to get the top job.
State: Joe Biden is likely to play a central role in foreign policy decision-making, and may serve as a de facto Secretary of State. That means that certain individuals who otherwise would be interested in the job, may pass on it. Among Obama’s current advisors, Anthony Lake, who served as National Security Advisor in the Clinton Administration, would be a strong contender, but I hear that he has made it pretty clear that he’s not interested. Other names I’ve heard include Chuck Hagel, Richard Lugar, John Kerry, and Bill Richardson. Although Obama will want to demonstrate bipartisanship, he would get significant pushback from Democrats were he to appoint Republicans to both State and DOD. That would exclude Hagel and Lugar, unless Gates doesn’t stay.
That leaves Richardson and Kerry. Given the fairly dynamic figures that have held the post more recently, Obama will want someone who can be an effective leader with the capacity to push back against Biden (when necessary). He also should pick someone who can fix what’s wrong with the current bureaucracy, including the challenges facing existing foreign assistance and public diplomacy operations. That pretty much excludes both Kerry and Richardson, who are neither assertive nor reformers.
Steve Clemons believes that, if those are the choices, Obama should go with Kerry — largely because of Clemons’s concerns (which I share) about Richardson’s temperament, mistreatment of staff, and tendency toward personal self-aggrandizement. Richardson also might face the toughest confirmation fight, given his erratic tenure as Secretary of Energy and a talent for exaggeration that exceeds even Joe Biden’s.
But I’m not so high on Kerry either. Despite his brilliant speech at the convention, Kerry is, in many ways, a slightly younger version of Warren Christopher, Clinton’s first Secretary of State. Christopher was a weak Secretary, lacking the energy to reform the Department (not that his three successors did much better) or the charisma to influence policy. Kerry also would reinforce the now-outdated perception of the Department as a striped pants-wearing East Coast elite out of touch with mainstream America.
There are two other factors concerning Kerry that Steve may not have considered — neither of which is likely to prevent him from taking the job, but still should be remembered as we discuss the possibility of it. First (and sadly to say), Ted Kennedy probably doesn’t have long to live; Kerry may hesitate to leave his state with two fairly junior Senators (then again he may not). Second, assuming that Chris Dodd wants to continue playing a central role in managing the Congressional response to the financial crisis, Kerry is next in line to succeed Biden as Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee. Again, that may not prevent him from taking the job, but I could see Obama encouraging him to play that role for at least a couple of years.
So where does that leave us? I see four likely scenarios:
- Obama goes with Reed, Danzig, or Gration at DOD, enabling him to pick Lugar or Hagel at State;
- Obama picks Kerry or Richardson;
- Obama picks a younger, more dynamic figure from his inner circle (Danzig, Rice, or Craig are the most likely);
- Obama goes long and makes an unexpected pick.
If it’s the fourth scenario, let me throw out some names: former Vice President Al Gore; former Senator Gary Hart (who has done some of the more creative thinking out there); and former Congressman (and 9-11 Commission co-chair) Lee Hamilton. Gore would have the gravitas, the ability to push back when Biden gets a bit assertive, and experience in trying to reform government institutions. Hart also has those qualities, although his track record as a reformer is more the result of his post-Senatorial career promoting change from outside the political process. Hamilton flunks the dynamic leader test, but his leadership on the 9-11 Commission demonstrates that he understands the structural challenges.
Let me suggest three other possibilities, all of which would pass the dynamic leader and reformer tests: Russ Feingold, Barbara Boxer, and Eric Holder. Neither Feingold or Boxer has much executive experience, but Hagel, Lugar, and Kerry don’t either. Of the two, I think Feingold is more likely, if only because James Doyle, a Democrat, would appoint his replacement, while Schwartzenegger would pick Boxer’s.
Holder, who served as Deputy Attorney-General in the Clinton Administration, is usually viewed as a leading candidate for the top job at Justice. But when Obama announced his national security advisory group back in June, Holder was on the list. He certainly passes the dynamism test, and he also should be able to shake up the foreign policy apparatus.
In terms of who definitely won’t get the job, my money is on Richard Holbrooke, who would have been the frontrunner had Gore won in 2000. Holbrooke is smart, capable, and has the confidence to be an effective leader, push back against against Biden, and reform the foreign policy apparatus. Unfortunately, he also has a track record of angering the wrong people at the wrong time, and treats his staff as abysmally as Richardson does. According to what I’ve heard, neither Rice nor Lake like him much. CQ’s inclusion of him as one of the three most likely candidates (along with Rice and Richardson) is laughable, especially given the fact that he was consciously excluded from the senior foreign policy advisory team created after Obama brought the Clintonistas on board.
Deputy Secretary of State is a much more significant position than it used to be — Richard Armitage, Robert Zoellick, and John Pointdexter all were important players during the Bush years, and both Zoellick and Pointdexter left cabinet-level positions to take the job. If Obama goes with one of the more senior figures as Secretary, then he’ll want someone younger and more dynamic to lead the charge on foreign affairs reform. As I noted earlier, Gregory Craig would be a solid choice, although his role as Elian Gonzalez’s father’s attorney may hurt his chances for confirmation (something he wouldn’t face were he to be named National Security Advisor). Susan Rice also would be a good pick, although my gut says she’ll want to stay closer to the White House. If he doesn’t get one of the top two jobs at Defense, Richard Danzig also is a possibility. Two other possibilities are Morton Halperin, who served as head of policy planning under Albright, among other positions over the years; and Dennis Ross, Clinton’s Middle East guru.
Some Presidents have made the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations a Cabinet-level position. Bush did not (thank God in the case of John Bolton); Obama should do so, even if he does not name someone in the near future.
In terms of who would be best for the job, Obama should pick someone who not only can play the role effectively, but will be seen as credible advocate to the rest of the world. My choice would be Harold Hongju Koh, current Dean of Yale Law School and former Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor in the Clinton years (full disclosure: Harold is my former boss and a close friend) — although he’s far more likely to be on any short list for the Supreme Court. Another possibility is former Senator Timothy Wirth, who now heads the U.N Foundation. A third is former Deputy Secretary of Treasury Stuart Eisenstadt, though he is more likely a candidate for Secretary of Treasury or U.S. Trade Representative.
So who do I want and who do I think will get it? First, here’s who I would like to see named:
- Secretary of Defense: Jack Reed or Richard Danzig (although I could live with Gates staying on);
- Deputy, DOD: Danzig or Gration
- National Security Advisor: Susan Rice or Jim Steinberg
- Deputy, NSC: Susan Rice if she doesn’t get the top job, Mark Lippert if she does
- Secretary of State: Chuck Hagel (unless Gates stays on, in which case I’d like to see Russ Feingold)
- Deputy, DOS: Greg Craig or Mort Halperin
- USUN: Harold Koh
Now here’s who I think will get it:
- Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates
- Deputy, DOD: Richard Danzig
- National Security Advisor: Jim Steinberg
- Deputy, NSC: Susan Rice
- Secretary of State: Bill Richardson
- Deputy, DOS: Greg Craig
- USUN: Tim Wirth
Share your ideas in the comments below.
Related posts
| posted in foreign policy, politics | 2 Comments
Loading ...
