This week President-elect Obama named his energy and environment team, including Nobel laureate Steven Chu to head the Department of Energy. Of all the science and technology issues that could be discussed on a site like this, few are more global than planet-wide environmental issues, so I thought I’d take a look at the new team.
First, the lineup as it was predicted by the New York Times last Thursday:
The officials said Mr. Obama would name Steven Chu, the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, as his energy secretary, and Nancy Sutley, deputy mayor of Los Angeles for energy and environment, as head of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. Mr. Obama also appears ready to name Carol M. Browner, the E.P.A. administrator under President Bill Clinton, as the top White House official on climate and energy policy and Lisa P. Jackson, who until recently was New Jersey’s commissioner of environmental protection, as the head of the E.P.A.
The selection of Dr. Chu in particular has interested commentators, as his responsibilities are formidable:
Dr. Chu will be taking on one of the most challenging jobs in government at the Department of Energy. He will be responsible for the maintenance and development of the nation’s nuclear weapons stockpile, as well as for modernizing the nation’s electrical power delivery system.
He will also play a central role in directing the research and development of alternative energy sources needed to replace fossil fuels in a era of constrained carbon emissions. Mr. Chu shared a Nobel Prize in physics in 1997 for work on supercooled atoms.
At the Lawrence Berkeley laboratory, he has sponsored research into biofuels and solar energy and has been a strong advocate of controlling greenhouse gas emissions.
Scott Segal, director of the Electric Reliability Coordinating Council, an industry group, said he was pleased that Dr. Chu had the technical expertise to realistically assess future energy technologies.
“His experience seems to dovetail perfectly with the president-elect’s commitment to bringing new energy technology to market in a timely fashion,” Mr. Segal said. “An understanding of the art of the possible in energy technology will be critical to the development of a cost-effective climate change policy.”
I like the Obama team for the professionalism it represents: people with experience getting things done in Washington as well as people with sufficient technical backgrounds to appreciate the practical difficulties involved in the various options with which they will be presented. The proposed team is good, competent, and since I don’t know enough about the economic, political, or technical issues involved in this area, I will simply wish them well and ask them to get on with it.
I am reasonably well-informed citizen of the United States, though millions of Americans are surely more current on a whole range of issues than am I. Also, I am a working scientist whose paycheck derives from the small contribution of my research to the economic value I help to create for my employer. I think I have a useful perspective on a set of issues which I freely admit I don’t fully understand.
But I have to admit I am a little nervous about social engineering on this scale, and in realizing that, I have hit upon a tongue-in-cheek theme for this post: “prove me wrong, rocket scientist!” Here’s my unsolicitied advice to Obama’s new team:
Although most people agree that global warming and other planet-wide changes are underway, and that human activity is at least partially a cause of some of these effects, most Americans aren’t engaged on the issue. The Obama team needs to remind us of the evidence in a way that could also convince those who voted for John McCain and George Bush.
Scientists can identify technical trends and options, and predict their logical outcomes. Economists can estimate the costs of doing this, that, or nothing at all. But society in general has to decide what cost it is willing to bear to achieve a certain social or political goal.
The Obama team needs to tell us what we would be getting for your expenditure of my economic and social capital. If you don’t think this first step isn’t necessary, remember that millions of children in the world die every year from diseases that are technologically treatable, but are not deemed worthy of the financial output of either their own country, ours, or the world’s population in general. Or, think about people starving to death in a world awash with food: the answer exists, but no one is willing to pay for it.
I am playing devil’s advocate here, but a different way to structure the question is this: humans are as much a part of the Earth’s ecosystem as any other species, so if the methane emissions of elephant and wild cattle gastrointestinal tracts can contribute to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and thus to global warming, why can’t humans?
There’s an easy answer to that, but the case for the costs and sacrifice have to be made clearly and successfully.
I am not an economist, but I remember reading somewhere that most countries’ carbon footprint can be pretty well related to their overall economic output. The Obama team needs to tell me whether this is true or not. If it is, tell me clearly why I should accept reduced economic output for the environmental goals you want to achieve (Americans, two-thirds of our economic output is consumer spending, so reducing economic output means reducing consumer spending, which means we all receive less services and goods).
If it is a moral argument, that is fine, but make it clearly, and make an argument to the undecided and unsure rather than just repeating to the choir why they already believe what they do on this issue.
Along the same lines as above, like most Americans I don’t believe the government should be picking winners and losers in the marketplace, but I would be interested in knowing if there are exceptions to the carbon footprint = economic output rule, and if there are, what lessons you think we should draw from that, and how our government can help incentivize economic actors to pursue these more promising approaches. Prove to me that there is a path forward that doesn’t mean I have to walk fifteen miles to work every day wearing a burlap sack and snacking on a turnip grown without irrigation.
Tell me why this whole thing can’t be simply reduced to the following strategy: a cap-and-trade scheme that sets an overall limit on carbon dioxide emissions for United States (you can avoid a carbon tax on individuals by letting oil and power companies build the cost of their credits into the price of energy and gasoline, or you can impose a carbon tax on gasoline, coal, natural gas, and heating oil, but one way or another individuals must also bear the cost of this choice), and substantially increased government funding for research and development on clean energy.
I may also buy increased government spending on public transport, an upgraded energy grid, and eventual worker retraining once it becomes clearer what kinds of skills might be competitive in the rejigged economy that would result from this, but it isn’t obvious to me why anything else that has been proposed could not and should not be done better in the private sector (where incidentally it might even create a few jobs). So, if you want to do things beyond these few steps, or do other things instead, tell me what they are and why they are better.
Tell me what compromise you can envision between the stated environmental desires of other countries (ignoring for now whether they truly intend to meet their obligations), and the political reality that any climate treaty must be ratified by two-thirds of the U.S. Senate. We are the world’s leader and so we should lead, but we should lead from a position of agreement within and outside of ourselves. So realistically what is that position, and how are you going to avoid passion-wasting political cul-de-sacs?
Finally, the kicker — the issue that I think people are avoiding right now. Before the recession was fully realized, the environment was the most typical common ground in a divided populace, and also the area in which candidates Obama and McCain were more similar to each other than either was to President Bush. But beginning to price the environmental impact of economic choices by both corporations, individuals, and other actors will surely exert a further drag on the economy in the short-term, and as the unemployment rate continues to climb in 2009, another area of potential spend is likely to shove this aside: health care and coverage of it for individuals.
To put it bluntly, I care much more about my ability to maintain my health and that of my family (and indeed of any other human being on the planet) than I do about my ability to zero out the impact of humans on the environment, and I suspect most people would agree with me if they thought about it in those terms. So prove to me that we can do both, because if we can’t, I know which one I prefer.
That’s it: my open letter to a rocket scientist. If you want my advice, forget about a carbon tax on individuals, poll a thousand climate scientists as to the minimum level of carbon emissions that would be 90 percent likely to have a minor impact on the global climate, price the total set of emission credits representing that at a tenth of what we spend on health care and defense, auction them off over a couple of years in a manner that allows for small players to borrow the money to play, and then sit back and see what happens.
It doesn’t have to be exactly right the first time, and it may turn out to be a lot harder or more expensive than anyone realizes. Don’t worry about penalizing or rewarding early buyers if you have to change the price of the credits later, as the price of lots of assets change constantly. Just ask the Treasury Secretary about how he’s suddenly making a profit selling three-month notes.
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