One jokey Chuck Norris political commercial is hilarious.
Two jokey Chuck Norris political commercials is just painfully overdone.
You gotta give the NRA credit. They just locked up the 14-year-old World-of-Warcraft-playing Barrens chat trolls for John McCain.
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Last week I wrote both on Undip and HuffPo that I think Sarah Palin is likely the front-runner for the Republicans in 2012. Now, a number of other bloggers have joined the discussion, and most agree.
I know it’s way to early to assume this election is over, but if it is, there are four major contenders for the Republican nomination in four years: a business leader/neocon wannabe (Mitt Romney), a libertarian with social conservative sympathies (Ron Paul), and two social conservative/economic populist mavericks (Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee).
Of those four, two — Romney and Paul — are largely Dukakasian figures, not really rising to the level of serious contenders for the presidency even if they manage to win the nomination. Palin and Huckabee, however are far more formidable, and both could pose a serious challenge to Obama in four years.
The problem they face is that they have the same base: social conservatives. So the question is, who is more likely to move outside their base to cobble together the semblance of the coalition necessary to win the nomination?
My gut is that it’s Palin. As much as social conservatives like Huckabee, they think Palin walks on water. Economic conservatives are likely to find her less threatening than Huckabee, given his largely populist views on economic matters. Libertarians, especially those of the Ron Paul mode, like her pro-gun, anti-government rhetoric. She’s smart enough to highlight the small business owner/anti-tax facade of her image, helping to mollify the other factions. And, as Jane Mayer notes in the most recent issue of The New Yorker, she already is building a constituency within the neocon cognoscenti.
So where does that leave Huckabee? If he runs in four years and loses, it’s the end of his political career. If he’s smart, he’ll stay on the sidelines. He’ll be 61 in 2016, certainly young enough still to mount a vigorous campaign. In addition, voters in this country are more likely to change parties after eight years than they are after four. It also would enable him to avoid the likely civil war within the Republicans among the social conservatives, economic conservatives, and libertarians.
To be completely honest here, I think Palin is a crypto-fascist, Romney is a corporate tool, and Paul is a raving lunatic. In contrast, Huckabee is, despite his limited knowledge of foreign policy and troglodyte views on social issues, a smart, thoughtful, and largely decent man whose economic views are more in line with convential Democratic thinking than anyone else in his party. Were he to be the nominee in 2012, he could pose a real challenge to Obama. So it’s in my (and other Democrats’) interest to see him stay on the sidelines while his party self-destructs.
| posted in foreign policy, global economy, media, politics | 0 Comments
Some folks believe that McCain may dump Sarah Palin, which would put him into McGovern territory. I doubt it will happen, given the fact that the next Hail Mary pass the McCain campaign may throw is a wedding for Bristol and Levi.
Those poor kids. What happened to families being off-limits?
My advice to those supporting Obama: be careful what you wish for. If McCain were to pick someone else who could energize the base and hold his own on the stump — say Huckabee or Jindal — it may have a real impact.
So please, don’t hope for something that may hurt us, keep your mouths shut, and for Buddha’s sake if McCain does do it, don’t celebrate or gloat.
Talk amongst yourselves. Back bright and early tomorrow morning.
| posted in none of the above | 0 Comments
The best quote of yesterday, perhaps of the entire convention season, came from a commenter on the Mudflats blog:
Jesus was a Community Organizer, and Pontius Pilate was a Governor.”
That got me thinking. Who else was a community organizer? Here’s a short list:
Oh! I forgot one!
See, here’s the thing, Governor Palin. Anyone who organizes in the community — whether they are organizing poor people or moose hunters, crime victims or gun owners, is a community organizer.
You might want to take a few minutes and read de Tocqueville’s Democracy in America:
There is only one nation on the earth where use is made each day of the unlimited liberty to form associations. . . . This same nation is the only one in the world whose citizens have conceived of making constant use of the right of association in civil life and have succeeded in procuring for themselves in this manner all the goods that civilization can offer.
Or was this one of the books you had banned from Wasilla’s library?
| posted in politics, pop culture, world at home | 2 Comments
We all thought that John McCain would bring a level of civil discourse to the campaign. That hasn’t been the case.
I’m listening to Huckabee right now and realize that he was the guy who would have raised that discourse. This is a civil speech, a thoughtful speech, one that was worthy of a civil discourse.
Oh wait. He just played the cheese eating surrender monkey card. Oh well.
I can’t help wondering, though, if the Europeans are such evil socialist taxing communists, why is it that their currency is kicking the butt of our currency?
Have to admit that her line about Palin getting more votes as Mayor than Biden got running for President was good. Too bad it’s not true.
“John McCain helped me have a school desk.” That was one weird story.
Still, this is the speech of a guy who’s going to be a serious player in national politics in the future. Imagine just how much trouble the Democrats would be in had he been the VP.
| posted in media, politics | 3 Comments
Pundits and bloggers have spilled a lot of ink (and bits) this week over whether Sarah Palin is qualified to be a “heartbeat away from the Presidency.” I’m not sure that’s the right question.
Let’s pose a different hypothetical. What if John McCain were to die tomorrow? Would the Republican National Committee name Sarah Palin to be their candidate? Probably, in fact almost definitely not. They would turn to someone else — Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, maybe even Fred Thompson. But you can bet the bank they would not choose her.
To be fair, were we to pose the same hypothetical about the Democrats, there’s a very real possibility that DNC members would not name Joe Biden — they would almost definitely name Hillary Clinton. But Biden would be a clear second choice, passed over not because he was qualified but rather because Hillary got almost as many votes as Barack.
In contrast, Palin probably wouldn’t even make the top five. Senior Republican leaders don’t believe she’s qualified. That’s why so many party regulars are leaking to the press. They’re stunned and angry, and worry that she will drag down the ticket. They don’t believe she has the foreign policy chops. They also don’t believe she knows how to manage a large and complex economy.
The key question isn’t whether Palin is qualified to be President “someday.” The key question is whether Republicans believe that she is qualified to be President right now.
| posted in foreign policy, politics, pop culture | 0 Comments
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