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10:39  RNC keeping schedule tight.  Keeps talking heads off of cable.  Lieberman now on.

10:40  Lieberman leads with Gustav.  Anyone else see irony in Lieberman’s talking about nonpartisanship after Thompson’s bright red bloody moose meat of a speech?

10:41  Crowd responding a bit tepidly.  RNC might have been smarter to switch order:  Lieberman then Thompson.

10:41  Lieberman emphasizing the dissonance in DC.

10:42  Lieberman speaks of Washington’s warning about factions.  But didn’t Washington also warn of the dangers of risky foreign interventions?

10:43  Joe supporting McCain because country matters more than party.  John McCain is the best choice to bring our country together and lead America forward.

10:44  More important to be an American than a Republican or Democrat.  Indirect slap on Obama?

10:44  Only one candidate has actually changed the culture of Washington.  But if that’s true, why is McCain still running against the culture of Washington?

10:45  People don’t care about whether you’re an R or a D, they care about putting country first, as McCain did this week.  As I’ve blogged, I’m not sure that’s the case — Gustav response may be another example of RNC cronyism.

10:48  God made only one John McCain.  True.  Thank Buddha he only made one Joe Lieberman as well.

10:49  “If John McCain is another partisan Republican, then I’m Michael Moore’s favorite Democrat.”  He laughs at his own joke.

10:49:  Obama is a gifted and eloquent young man, but eloquence is not a substitute for a record, not in these times.

10:50  Obama has not reached across party lines?  Really?  Ask Dick Lugar.

10:51  OMG Lieberman just got the Republican base to applaud for Bill Clinton.

10:51  Palin is a “great lady.”  Has Lieberman met her?  Someone please ask him.

10:52  Sincerely believe that the real ticket for change this year is the McCain-Palin ticket.  Crowd still not really responding as enthusiastically as they did to W and Thompson.

10:52  Washington powerbrokers can’t build a pen to hold these two mavericks in.  Not sure that was the best metaphor.

10:53  What country needs is not party unity but national unity.  Crowd doesn’t like this as much as Thompson’s red meat.

10:54  When others were silent about Iraq, John McCain had the guts to raise the mistakes we were making.  You mean like invading, Joe?

10:54  Lieberman plays the Obama voted to cut off funds canard.

10:55  Crowd chants “country first.”

10:55  McCain liked and respected by leaders across the board.  McCain will be a President our allies will trust and our enemies will fear.

10:56  Wants to speak to fellow Democrats and independents:  I know you’re angry and frustrated by politics of our government.  You may be thinking of voting for McCain and in an ordinary election you never would.  But this is no ordinary election because these are not ordinary times.  John McCain is no ordinary candidate.

10:57  You may not agree with McCain on every issue but you can count on him to be straight with you.  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.  Sorry — that was the best joke of the night.

10:58  Vote for person who you think is best for country, not party you happen to belong to.  Vote for the leader who from the age of 17 who has always put America first.

Meh.  Lieberman’s speech was just like him — kind of milquetoast-y.  Audience response was not really powerful.  I kept thinking of Jon Stewart’s portrayal of Lieberman as Droopy.  I think the RNC made a tactical mistake:  Thompson, the stem-winder, should have gone after Lieberman, whose tone was droning and a bit dull.

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I know that today is going to be taken up with Obamaveepalooza, but something just occurred to me about  McCain’s campaign.

Despite McCain’s recent gains, I remain convinced that Obama is going to win, and probably win with a significant majority in the electoral college.  McCain’s “celebrity” attacks really only put him in striking distance, and barring a major screw-up by the Obama campaign, an Obama collapse in the debates, or the capture of bin Laden, I don’t see him getting any closer — especially now that his signature issue, Iraq, is for all intents and purposes, off the table.

So his choice of vice presidents is one of his last opportunities to change the game.

By all accounts, there are four finalists:  Lieberman, Ridge, Romney, and Pawlenty.  Three of the four are anethema to right-wing evangelicals:  Lieberman and Ridge because of their pro-choice views, Romney because he’s a Mormon.  Choosing any of them will depress turnout, and choosing a pro-choice candidate may so depress the base that Obama will win in a walk  (which is why I’m hoping he’ll do it).  And Pawlenty is the Tim Kaine of Republican politics:  mild-mannered milquetoast with with a side of boring.

Given the current kerfuffle about the 206 homes McCain owns, he’s missing an opportunity here.  Speaking not as a partisan but as an analyst, the right choice is. . .none of the above.

Only one candidate would turn out base in big numbers and at the same time cut the “rich and out of touch” stories off at the knees.

Mike Huckabee.

Huckabee makes evangelicals enthusiastic, excites economic populists (some of whom remain unmoved by Obama), and takes states like North Carolina, Georgia and even Indiana off the table.

And thanks to Chuck Norris, Huckabee might even bring back the Dungeons and Dragons/World of Warcraft nerd vote.

Yes, the Club for Growth, Grover Norquist, and other economic conservatives would probably have an aneurysm.  And yes, it may drive some libertarians to support either Barr or Obama.  But no other choice would do more to change the paradigm.  And for McCain, I think Huckabee’s upsides far outweigh his downsides.

Keep in mind I’m not advocating for Huckabee.  But if I were in McCain’s shoes, that’s who I’d pick.

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For some reason, the meme on the intertubes yesterday was “OMG Obama is flailing! OMG! OMG!”  I’m not quite sure why, but several factors appear to be at play:  several new national polls show McCain within the margin of error; growing fears that McCain’s negative ads have had an impact on Obama; and several progressive bloggers — particularly Josh Marshall and friends over at TPM — hit Obama hard today for what they see as his relative passivity.

My response?  Calm down, people.

What follows is a list of the reasons I’m not worried.  This one goes to sixteen.

1,  Too much was made of the “Berlin bounce.” Too many Obama supporters got giddy over something that, a few weeks later, most people have forgotten. The same will be true about the celebrity kerfuffle (more on that in a minute).

2.  The conventions haven’t happened yet.  Despite the fact that some of us have been following this thing for 206 years, most people aren’t paying attention yet.

3.  National polls don’t matter — if they did, Al Gore would be in the last seven months of his presidency.

4.  Although there are reasons to be nervous, Obama is still doing well in a number of states.  Yes, some races are tightening, but that’s to be expected.  The only two I’m worried about at this point are Michigan (and only if Mitt Romney is McCain’s VP and the Kwame Kilpatrick saga gets worse) and Minnesota (where Al Franken is so badly hurt by Coleman’s “use his comedy to destroy him” strategy that he’s dragging Obama down).  To be clear, things aren’t wonderful; they’re not even great.  But they’re not bad, considering everything McCain has thrown in Obama’s direction over the past few weeks. (To be clear, this is all based on my gut feeling; if you want statistical models, go to Nate Silver’s brilliant site.)

5.  I do think that Obama did make one mistake recently:  the timing of his Olympic advertising.  It appears that the majority of his buy was during week two, and his focus is primarily on policy rather than biography.  McCain, meanwhile, appears to have spread out his buy, using week one to run his attack ads and week two for biography.  (If anyone has more than anecdotal evidence that I’m either right or wrong about this, please let me know.) Given the huge interest in Michael Phelps and gymnastics, that may have been a misjudgment.  But I doubt it will have a long-term impact.

6.  Things are more likely to go Obama’s way over the next few weeks, barring a major misstep.  If he picks Biden (or Gore or Clark, for that matter) he’ll get a bump.  If his acceptance speech is up to his usual standard, he’ll get a bump.  Meanwhile, McCain is unlikely to get similar bumps from his VP pick or his speech (unless expectations are so low that he manages not to look bad).  And Rudy Giuliani as the Republican keynoter?  WTF?  Talk about the stench of defeat.  Gee, I wonder if he’ll talk about 9/11?

7.  If McCain picks Ridge, Lieberman, Wittman, or Fiorina, he’ll have an evangelical revolt on his hands.  He may pick up a point or two from the PUMAs, but he’ll lose two to three times that from the Dobson brigade staying home.

8.  Ron Paul could be to 2008 what Pat Buchanan was to 1992.  Bob Barr is going to suck more votes away from McCain than Ralph Nader and Cynthia McKinney will from Obama.  It probably won’t matter, but that’s what we thought about Nader in 2000.

9.  McCain is starting to make mistakes.  For example, his comments on water rights in Colorado may cost him the state.  Even the mainstream media is starting to notice.

10.  McCain has had a great month, but what really did he get out of it?  That Obama is a celebrity?  If this is the 2008 equivalent of swift-boating, then Obama will be fine.  And some voters were not happy with the attacks.  Obama’s negatives may have gone up, but so did McCain’s.

11. As we get closer to the election, real issues are going to matter more than the nonsense Schmidt and company are regurgitating right now.  Obama’s people understand that, and their targeting of specific ads in specific markets reflects a canny approach to exposing McCain’s weaknesses on the economy.

12.  I live in a battleground state (Virginia).  Now I know that Obama’s people know I’m supporting Obama — after all, I co-managed the NoVa phone bank during the primary (35,000 calls  by over 300 volunteers in 5 days, baybee).  Right now, I’m getting, on average two to three  calls a week asking me to volunteer.  That’s what people mean by Obama having a superior ground game.  It will make a difference in a number of states — just as Bush’s did four years ago.

13.  The debates.  Obama may not be as effective at debating as he is at oratory (and McCain may be better), but unless McCain starts coming up with some actual positions, he’s going to find it hard to talk about Obama’s alleged character defects for two hours.

14.  Sooner or later, someone is going to ask McCain a hard question he can’t answer in a venue he can’t avoid, or someone is going to say something to set him off in a manner that will cause people to question his character.

15.  Yes racism is a factor, but so is anti-racism.  For example, both my parents are Republicans (though my father is a former Democrat).  My mother still thinks Nixon is innocent.  Yet both are voting for Obama.  Why?  In part because they want the chance to make history — and erase the legacy of their generation.

16.  McCain’s decision to work within the existing federal campaign spending limits was a fatal mistake.  Obama will be able to outspend him by huge margins in every way that matters.  Yes, the RNC has an advantage over the DNC, but not enough to even the playing field.  McCain will either have to devote resources to shore up what should have been sure things (and thus not have as much money to spend on other battlegrounds) or find himself with more states in which to compete.  Either way, he loses.

So calm down and keep your eyes on the prize, people.  But that doesn’t mean you should relax.  We have roughly 100 days left.  It’s time to work your rear ends off.

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THIS JUST IN:  Steve Clemons is reporting that Hagel will endorse Obama.  This is the same post as before, which if Steve is right, is even more important now.

According to The Wall Street Journal, among others, Chuck Hagel is planning to travel to Iraq with Barack Obama.  Hagel, of course, has featured prominently in the Obama VP sweepstakes, although his name has dropped off the radar a bit over the past month.

I like Hagel, and I think he’s been an important voice on the Iraq war.  I don’t go as far as Steve Clemons does in arguing he should have run for President, or that Obama would be wise to choose him as VP.  Frankly, were Obama to put together a unity ticket, he would be better off with Richard Lugar, one of his mentors on foreign policy in the Senate.  Lugar brings greater gravitas and is from a swing state to boot.  But I think the chances of Lugar on the ticket are about as great as  The Condi winning the Masters next spring.

I also believe, in the spirit of Spencer Ackerman and Matt Yglesias’s argument against keeping Robert Gates on as SecDef, the Democrats need to prove that there are worthy people within their own party for these posts.  It’s often overlooked, but John Kerry’s slide four years ago began not with the Swift Boat ads or his terrible acceptance speech (although both certainly hurt), but rather with his efforts to get  John McCain to become his VP nominee.  When McCain said no, it weakened not only Kerry but also John Edwards, the eventual nominee, who was regarded by many as little more than a consolation prize.

All that said, I do find it interesting that none of the mainstream media’s reports (or at least none of the ones I’ve read) have mentioned the fact that Hagel is in many ways the mirror of Joe Lieberman, who betrayed defected from the Democratic party to support John McCain:

• Lieberman was on the Democratic ticket in 2000; Hagel was widely presumed to be McCain’s choice to be VP had McCain beat Bush in 2000.
• Lieberman is socially liberal; Hagel is socially conservative.
• Lieberman is in favor of staying the course in Iraq; Hagel wants us to get out as quickly as humanly possible.
• Lieberman has grown increasingly shrill in his criticisms of his former party; Hagel has remained thoughtful and balanced in his criticism of President Bush.

Unlike Lieberman, Hagel has not yet endorsed the opposition party’s nominee.  The rumor mill says he just might yet, and it certainly would be a big boost to Obama were he to pull a reverse Lieberman.

But even if he doesn’t, a joint trip to Iraq — and, I would assume, a statement supporting Obama’s position on Iraq — would certainly be as embarrassing to McCain as Lieberman’s shenanigans have been to the Democrats.  Even better, it could diminish the marquee value of Lieberman’s defection, and might even force the boys on the bus men and women on the Not-So-Straight Talk Express to ask McCain some hard questions on the war.

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