With only a couple of months left before the Bush Administration gets indicted leaves office, I was wondering whether Dubya would launch any last-minute foreign policy initiatives.  Doing so would not be unprecedented — eight years ago, Clinton spent a lot of his time trying to secure Middle East peace.

According to Jim Hoagland in this morning’s WaPo, Bush isn’t interested in similar efforts, shooting down a proposal by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to reach out to Cuba and Iran.

Unlike Hoagland, I think that is a mistake, particularly in the case of Cuba.

Someone (sorry — I can’t find the reference) once said that the best time to open the door to Cuba would be during the second term of a Republican president. The current transition to a new President makes even more sense.  Given the fact that every President since Kennedy has been captive to the electoral influence of Florida’s Cuban exile community, the best way to break the cycle is to take action when there’s little or no impact on politics. And it’s not like the move would hurt Republican prospects — Cuban-American Members of Congress (and the 2012 Republican nominee) could condemn Bush’s decision.

I have no illusions about the Castros — in the early 1990s, I spent a year documenting the Castro regime’s use of psychiatric techniques (such as electro-convulsive therapy) to torture dissidents.  But I share President-elect Obama’s view that the best way to secure change in rogue regimes is through engagement.  The decades-old U.S. policy of isolating Cuba has failed to bring down the Castro regime and has done little to encourage domestic Cuban opposition.  In fact, the current embargo only gives the Castros greater legitimacy in the eyes of average Cubans.

It’s been nearly twenty years since the Berlin Wall fell.  Most Americans — and even most policymakers — no longer think that isolating Cuba makes any sense.  It’s no longer a “Soviet aircraft carrier off the shores of Florida,” and it isn’t even the greatest challenge to American influence in Latin America (that dubious honor now belongs to Hugo Chavez and Venezuela).

Rice’s mistake may have been attempting to move directly to the idea of formally recognizing the Castro regime.  According to Hoagland, Rice sent a team of senior diplomats to explore the that possibility a year ago.  I agree with Hoagland that doing so would have represented moving too quickly and would have severely limited President-elect Obama’s options.

But that doesn’t mean that there aren’t steps that Bush could take to improve U.S.-Cuban relations.  The first, and least politically costly, would be to end the current rule preventing Cuban-Americans from sending remittances to their Cuban relatives.  Even the Cuban American National Foundation, the most vocal (and politically powerful) advocate of sustaining the embargo, has said it would support the change.

The second would be to seek an agreement with the Castros to permit more extensive cultural exchanges (including journalists).  One of the most effective components of American public diplomacy during the Cold War was a series of exchanges that brought Soviet artists to the United States and sent American artists to tour the Soviet Union.  The program helped give Soviet citizens an entirely different view of life in the United States than what they were seeing in Soviet propaganda.  (The Soviets also recognized the value of such exchanges, and used them for the same purpose.)

The third would be to end the embargo and permit U.S.-Cuban trade.  Allowing the flow of American goods into the country would do much to increase Cuban citizens’ opinion of the United States and end one of the Castro brothers’ most effective arguments against improved relations.

These measures would go a long way toward ending the freeze in Cuban-American relations without undermining the underlying policy — that the Cuban people deserve the opportunity to choose their own government.  It also would do harm to Chavez and others who like to argue that the United States is only interested in advancing its neocolonialist policies.

So why would Bush oppose such efforts, even when they involve no apparent cost?  The answer has nothing to do with Hoagland’s view that any reassessment of Cuban policy should be left to the next Administration and everything to do with politics:  Jeb Bush may still think he can run for President in four years.  Given Dubya’s current unpopularity, that certainly looks like the longest of long shots. But President Bush is unlikely to do anything now that would undermine his brother’s popularity in a key Republican constituency.

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So you may be wondering why both campaigns have been focusing on Southwest Florida — the area known as the Gulf Coast.  Just yesterday On Monday, Sarah Palin appeared at a rally in Ft. Myers (the one where the Lee County Sheriff called Obama by his full name and is now under investigation for violating the Hatch Act).  Today, Joe Biden hosted a fundraiser in Naples.  The Gulf Coast usually isn’t on the front lines of Presidential politics, but this year it may be the swing region within the biggest swing state out there.

I’m what Floridians call a semi-native — someone who was not born in the state, but spent a good part of their youth there.  I went to high school and college there (Cardinal Mooney High School and New College represent!), and I even worked on a political campaign there (for the record, Marlene Woodson-Howard for Governor, and yes (gasp) she was a Republican — call it my misspent youth).

I don’t claim to have an extensive understanding of Florida politics, but having spent some time on the campaign (surrogate) trail, I do know that the state should go Republican.  So needless to say, I’m surprised to see this happening:

Florida basically can be divided into five zones:  Panhandle (including Jacksonville), the East Coast, Central Florida (including Orlando), Tampa Bay, and the Gulf Coast.  There is some overlap among the zones, but basically each has a different identity.

• The Panhandle is closer in outlook to the rest of the Old South than it is to the rest of the state.  Consider it solidly Republican.
• The East Coast is primarily populated by retirees from the northeastern United States, and in the Miami area, Cuban-Americans and other immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean.  With the exception of the Cubanos, the region gets progressively more Democratic the farther south you go.
• Central Florida, despite its reputation as a mecca for tourists, is strongly evangelical.  This is Sarah Palin’s home turf, and the area where she’s been getting most of her big crowds.  If Orange, Lake, and other counties do not go for McCain in a big way, I’ll be shocked.
• The southwest Gulf Coast is populated primarily by retirees from the Midwest.  It tends to be fiscally conservative and socially neutral-to-liberal.  The instinct for most of the voters has traditionally been to support Republicans.
• The Tampa Bay area is the most mixed.  To the east, it resembles Central Florida.  To the west, in St. Petersburg, it resembles the Southwest.  In the middle is Tampa, which includes large minority communities and trends Democratic.

Many commentators have observed that McCain should do well in the Panhandle and Central Florida while Obama should do well along the East Coast,  Most have said that the election will come down to the Tampa Bay area.  That is quite possible, but I would suggest that the Gulf Coast might play as important a role.  Many of its residents are old school Rockefeller Republicans who have voted with their pocketbook.  This year, however, many are disillusioned with eight years of Bush mismanagement and wary of further strengthening of the social conservative elements within the Republican Party.  McCain should have been a natural candidate for them, but his lurch to the right, epitomized by his pick of Palin, has many questioning whether he is the best candidate.  I think that they just might go for Obama in big numbers.

If they do, McCain will lose Florida.  And if he loses Florida, he loses the election.  So on election night, watch five counties in Florida:  Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee, and Collier.  If some or all of them swing to Obama, it may forecast the outcome of the election.

I’ve asked my Dad, who still lives in Sarasota — and writes a weekly column for the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — what he’s heard on the ground.  I’ll report back what I hear.  In the meantime, any other readers from Gatorland are more than welcome to chip in.

In the meantime, can I please ask one favor of my friends down there?  Please please please don’t let it be close.  We don’t need 2000 redux, especially in the middle of two wars and a massive financial crisis.

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I’ve already convinced my parents in Florida to vote for Obama.  Have you convinced your relatives in the Sunshine State?  Here are some tips from Sarah Silverman.  Warning: this is probably NSFW, and it’s definitely NSFGAG (not safe for Grandma and Grandpa):

The Great Schlep

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If you want to get a sense of the on-the-ground reality of what’s at stake right now, take a moment to watch this slideshow on how Fort Meyers, Florida is coping with more than 700 abandoned and foreclosed homes.

To paraphrase Stalin, billions in bailout money is a statistic, but the death of a family’s dreams is a tragedy.

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This weekend, Radio Caracol, the folks who brought you John McCain’s Zapatero/Zapatista mix-up, interviewed Barack Obama.  Guess what?  He knew who Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero is.  He also called McCain’s refusal to meet with the Spanish Prime Minister proof that his opponent is losing his marbles evidence that McCain is merely an extension of Cheney’s failed foreign policy.  Not Bush’s — Cheney’s.

Radio Caracol seems to have figured out that fokls might want to here this, so they actually made the English-language recording available immediately.

Hat tip:  TPM

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The Telegraph (UK) strikes again:

British holidaymakers flee path of tropical storm Fay in Florida

Along with everyone else, you self-referential, blinkered twits.

This reminds me of a National Lampoon’s 1978 Sunday Newspaper Parody — “The Dacron, Ohio, Republican-Democrat — One of America’s Newspapers” which beat Jon Stewart and The Onion to fake news by about two decades.  Check out the second largest headline:

Heh.

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• Don’t Vote for a Democrat (Brickalott Prize Winner)

We have the first winner of the coveted Bricker-Lott Prize — awarded to those who use global issues to advance partisan ends.  Chances are you haven’t heard of our honoree — I certainly had not.

But before we get to him, a brief story:  a few years back, Molly and I went to see the author Carl Hiaasen speak.  Someone in the audience asked if he had ever come across real life situations that were just too bizarre to be convincing fiction.  Hiaasen laughed, said yes, and proceeded to tell some hilarious stories not suitable for this blog.

But the thing I most remember is what he said next:  he used to have trouble convincing people that Florida is even stranger real life than what he portrays in his novels, but that after the 2000 election he really didn’t have that problem anymore.

I can attest to the truth of what Hiaasen had to say:  I’m from Florida.  It’s where crazy goes to retire and insanity take a holiday.

So what does any of this have to do with the Brickalott Prize?  Well, let me put it this way:  you’re about to be introduced to yet another fine example of Florida home cookin’.

Meet Mike Meehan.

He looks like a regular sort of guy.

It turns out that Mike is a singer-songwriter, just like Bobby Dylan, Bruce Springsteen, and John Mellencamp.  Except, of course, he hates Democrats:

The Republican Song title is actually “Please Don’t Vote For a Democrat.” The song was written, played, sung, produced, and recorded by myself. I claim to be a man of God and like millions of others, I love this great nation, “The United States of America.”

I wrote this song to encourage and motivate as many people as possible not to vote for a “Democrat” in the 2008 Presidential Election.

So of course I watched the video produced by this fine upstanding citizen.  Within minutes, I wanted to scratch my eyes out vote for John McCain.

I was so impressed that I planned on sharing it with all of you.  Unfortunately, Osama Obama did something to it, I couldn’t get it embedded.  I blame the Democrats.

So instead, I’ll just share the lyrics.  Prepare to vomit be impressed:

The Democrat secular progressive move, political correctness is killing us too.
They want to take the money from the hard workin’ man, and give it to the lazy folks that don’t give a damn.

CHORUS

Democrats and Liberals, shame on you,
don’t punish us all just to please a few,
Your holdin people back while we’re pickin up the slack,
and that’s why we can’t vote for a Democrat.
Oh no, a no, no, no, no, no, no…
Oh no, a no, no, no, no, no, nooo…
Yeah, your holding people back, while we’re pickin up the tax,
Oh no, no please don’t vote for a Democrat.

Now we’re trying to win a war and wipe out the terrorists, we’re not fightin for oil we got plenty if we drill it.
But the liberals and the media are spreading their lies, get the hell out of our way and let our soldiers fight.

[CHORUS]

Republicans, we’re not perfect but we know the truth.  We uphold the Constitution and the Golden Rule.
We believe a mans freedom is a God given right, the USA is the beacon to the whole world in sight.

[CHORUS]

Our Constitution, Nation and God are under attack.  Oh no, please, oh no please, don’t vote for a Democrat.

My favorite line is “Oh no, a no, no, no, no, no, no,” because that’s just what I was screaming singing when I watched the video.

And THANK GOD that, as Mike says, Republicans are upholding the Constitution — because last I heard, some terrorist Democrat named Bush was setting the Bill of Rights on fire, allowing people to be tortured, wiretapping our phones, detaining people without trial, and a whole bunch of other things that I’m pretty sure violate the Golden Rule.

Now as good as all this is, there’s still more.  Mike was concerned that folks may not know that Democrats were behind  9/11.  To help us remember, he decided to put up this handy reminder in his right wing extremist enclave hometown of Orlando:

I know that I’m going to listen to him — after all, he said please.  Polite and all.  And having been in NYC on 9/11, I can vouch that Al Qaeda pilots didn’t fly those planes into the World Trade Center.  Nope — they were Democrats.

So congratulations Mike, enjoy your Brickalot… to the head.

Hat tip:  Think Progress

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