02:32 pm
99 Green Balloons
Green balloons over Tehran:
I think at this point, barring a move by Rafsanjani to displace Khameni, regime change is highly unlikely. But the Greens will not go quietly into the night, and the legitimacy of the current government is gone.
That said, as the Tiananmen Square massacre (and Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 and Poland in 1981 and. . . .) demonstrated, regime illegitimacy is not, in and of itself, a recipe for regime change. Over time, other governments usually chooses amnesia over isolation — it’s better to pretend that the regime in question really isn’t that bad, and, well, you know, there’s nothing you can do about having to engage.
But Iran isn’t China. And even with the nuclear issue, there is no real reason for the world to engage. The challenge for the Greens inside Iran and their friends outside will be to sustain the outrage for as long as possible. It won’t be an easy task.
Insh’allah.
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