Two fairly big stories today, neither of which is getting much coverage in the blogosphere or even the MSM beyond the NYT, FT and WaPo:

1.  The government of Sri Lanka has announced that it has captured the LTTE capital of Kilinochchi.  If true, this would be a huge victory for the government, and may mark the beginning of the end of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam’s de facto control over a chunk of northern Sri Lanka.  That’s potentially good news,as there probably isn’t a worse group out there when it comes to propagating terror — they are, after all, the folks who perfected suicide bombing.

A couple of caveats, however.  First, I doubt, that a military victory by the government will end LTTE suicide bombings — in fact, the Tigers launched one against the Sri Lankan Air Force headquarters in Colombo only hours after the President announced the capture of Kilinochchi.

Second, the government offensive has, by some accounts, displaced more than 200,000 Sri Lankans, primarily Tamils.  That’s not exactly going to endear them to the current government or make reconciliation possible.  In addition, the government offensive is making it harder and harder for these folks to find refuge — it’s almost as if the government is planning to push them into the sea.

Third, there is growing evidence that the government has engaged in disappearances and other abuses.  No matter how valid the government’s objections to the LTTE’s policies and practices may be, it does not justify the wholesale violation of human rights.  It also needs to make sure that any final victory does not unleash reprisal attacks against the minority Tamil community, the vast majority of which are law-abiding citizens.

2.  Russia — or more accurately, Gazprom, the government-controlled natural gas company — once again has cut off deliveries of natural gas to Ukraine after the latter refused to agree to a massive price increase.  Gazprom is claiming that it ended deliveries because Ukraine wasn’t paying its bills, and the Ukrainian government is saying that Russia refuses to pay to transship its gas across Ukraine.

The good news is that Ukraine claims to have enough reserves to make it through the winter, meaning that this won’t turn into a significant crisis — at least in terms of whether Ukrainians can survive the winter.

Three things to watch here.  First, it’s not clear whether this is an opening move by Russia to try to bring Ukraine back into its orbit (not in the Soviet meaning of the word, but rather as a client state in the old 19th Century balance of power meaning).  Russia has made clear its dissatisfaction with the status quo — in particular Ukraine’s efforts to join NATO.  The move therefore may be a warning shot that Russia will not tolerate closer Ukraine-NATO relations.

Second, when Russia took a similar step in 2006, EU member states freaked out, as much of their natural gas supplies come from Russia, and some via Ukraine.  In addition, the cut-off reduced pipeline pressure across the grid, slowing deliveries.  This time around, however, EU member states appear not to be as concerned.  In fact, sympathy for Ukraine (particularly after the Russia-Georgia war) and the cratering of energy prices across the globe may combine to make the EU response much more measured this time around.

That gets to my third point:  this may in the end backfire for Russia.  Its ability to use its oil and gas reserves to promote its foreign policy objectives has declined as precipitously as gas and oil prices.  And the decline in revenue is creating additional problems.  Ukraine is not Georgia.  Despite its fractious politics, it’s unlikely to be dumb enough to precipitate a conflict with Russia or weak enough to lose one badly.  Russia should be careful not to embarass itself with policies that it cannot enforce through either its economic or military capabilities.

A personal note:  I have spent quite a bit of time in both Sri Lanka and Ukraine.  One is among my favorite places in the world — in fact, Molly and I honeymooned there.  The other is probably the one place I wouldn’t visit again — in fact, it’s the one place where I was strip-searched.  I don’t think it’s too hard to figure out which is which.

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