Over the years, I’ve spent quite a bit of time in India, but not much in Mumbai.  That said, like any visitor to India’s financial and creative capital, I made sure to the Taj Hotel, which is a national treasure.

Now it’s on fire.  At least 80 people are dead, and countless more are wounded.  My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in that fair city.  I can only hope my friends there are okay.

Right now a domestic group known as the Indian Mujahideen has claimed responsibility, but some analysts think it may be al Qaeda.

Three things to watch as events unfold:

1.  India-Pakistan.  If it turns out that Pakistan-based militants are behind these attacks (or even worse, that the Indians discover evidence linking Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency to those responsible), it could spark a major regional crisis and perhaps even war.  And since both India and Pakistan are nuclear powers, that means a major international crisis as well.

2.  Reprisal attacks.  Although Hindus outnumber Muslims by a factor of more than six to one in India, that still means there are 150 million Muslims.  In the past, Muslim violence has led quickly to reprisal attacks against Muslim communities.  In 2002, for example, after a Muslim mob attacked a train in the state of Gujarat, riots by Hindus led to the death of over 2,000 Muslims.  In 1993-1994, Muslim-Hindu riots in Mumbai caused death of over 900 people.  Regardless of whether the instigators of today’s attacks turn out to be from outside India or not, chances are that we will see reprisal attacks in very short order.

3.  Domestic politics.  Currently, a coalition led by the Congress Party of India is in power, and its main rival, the Hindu-nationalist BJP, has been in disarray.  The attacks may change that, however, as BJP politicians have not hesitated in the past to use communal violence to whip up Hindu nationalist fervor.

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