03:33 pm
300 x 89 = Victory in Ohio
Joe Biden just did a bus tour of southern Ohio, focusing on the fact that Ohio went to Bush by 118,000 votes in 2004.
Obama has 89 offices in Ohio. That means each office has to find an additional 1,326 voters.
Based on my experience during the primary season, each office needs to deploy somewhere in the range of 300 canvassers on election day, plus another 50 making phone calls. Those are probably on the conservative end of what is likely to happen.
If we assume that each bank of phone canvassers can get an additional 100-125 voters to the polls in the 10-12 hours they make calls, and that only 300 canvassers show up at each office, then each canvasser needs to convince four people who didn’t vote for Kerry four years ago to vote for Obama. That includes those not registered to vote four years ago, those who failed to vote, and disillusioned Bush supporters. It does not include absentee or early voters.
Four voters for every volunteer — if the campaign can put 27,000 volunteers on the ground. If it can get 35,600 volunteers, that’s three votes for every volunteer.
Think that’s not plausible? When I was in South Carolina for the primary, I drove five people to the polls who otherwise would not have voted. Five others immediately got in their cars and head to the polls after I reminded them that it was election day. When I was in North Carolina, I got more than a dozen folks to do early voting, and another five to go to the polls on election day.
If you live in Michigan, Kentucky, Illinois, or western New York, vote absentee and get to Ohio. (If you live in Indiana, Pennsylvania, or West Virginia, vote absentee and help get those states in the win column).
Unless, of course, you want Sarah Palin to be our next vice president.