06:05 pm
Floridaze
So you may be wondering why both campaigns have been focusing on Southwest Florida — the area known as the Gulf Coast. Just yesterday On Monday, Sarah Palin appeared at a rally in Ft. Myers (the one where the Lee County Sheriff called Obama by his full name and is now under investigation for violating the Hatch Act). Today, Joe Biden hosted a fundraiser in Naples. The Gulf Coast usually isn’t on the front lines of Presidential politics, but this year it may be the swing region within the biggest swing state out there.
I’m what Floridians call a semi-native — someone who was not born in the state, but spent a good part of their youth there. I went to high school and college there (Cardinal Mooney High School and New College represent!), and I even worked on a political campaign there (for the record, Marlene Woodson-Howard for Governor, and yes (gasp) she was a Republican — call it my misspent youth).
I don’t claim to have an extensive understanding of Florida politics, but having spent some time on the campaign (surrogate) trail, I do know that the state should go Republican. So needless to say, I’m surprised to see this happening:
Florida basically can be divided into five zones: Panhandle (including Jacksonville), the East Coast, Central Florida (including Orlando), Tampa Bay, and the Gulf Coast. There is some overlap among the zones, but basically each has a different identity.
- The Panhandle is closer in outlook to the rest of the Old South than it is to the rest of the state. Consider it solidly Republican.
- The East Coast is primarily populated by retirees from the northeastern United States, and in the Miami area, Cuban-Americans and other immigrants from Latin America and the Caribbean. With the exception of the Cubanos, the region gets progressively more Democratic the farther south you go.
- Central Florida, despite its reputation as a mecca for tourists, is strongly evangelical. This is Sarah Palin’s home turf, and the area where she’s been getting most of her big crowds. If Orange, Lake, and other counties do not go for McCain in a big way, I’ll be shocked.
- The southwest Gulf Coast is populated primarily by retirees from the Midwest. It tends to be fiscally conservative and socially neutral-to-liberal. The instinct for most of the voters has traditionally been to support Republicans.
- The Tampa Bay area is the most mixed. To the east, it resembles Central Florida. To the west, in St. Petersburg, it resembles the Southwest. In the middle is Tampa, which includes large minority communities and trends Democratic.
Many commentators have observed that McCain should do well in the Panhandle and Central Florida while Obama should do well along the East Coast, Most have said that the election will come down to the Tampa Bay area. That is quite possible, but I would suggest that the Gulf Coast might play as important a role. Many of its residents are old school Rockefeller Republicans who have voted with their pocketbook. This year, however, many are disillusioned with eight years of Bush mismanagement and wary of further strengthening of the social conservative elements within the Republican Party. McCain should have been a natural candidate for them, but his lurch to the right, epitomized by his pick of Palin, has many questioning whether he is the best candidate. I think that they just might go for Obama in big numbers.
If they do, McCain will lose Florida. And if he loses Florida, he loses the election. So on election night, watch five counties in Florida: Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee, and Collier. If some or all of them swing to Obama, it may forecast the outcome of the election.
I’ve asked my Dad, who still lives in Sarasota — and writes a weekly column for the Sarasota Herald-Tribune — what he’s heard on the ground. I’ll report back what I hear. In the meantime, any other readers from Gatorland are more than welcome to chip in.
In the meantime, can I please ask one favor of my friends down there? Please please please don’t let it be close. We don’t need 2000 redux, especially in the middle of two wars and a massive financial crisis.
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