11:51 am
Douthat on Palin
I do read a few of the more thoughtful conservatives out there. One is Ross Douthat. Although I don’t agree with everything here, I think he’s got it about right.
At this point, I’m no longer that all that worried about Sarah Palin crashing and burning, Quayle-style, because John McCain plucked her from obscurity before her time. Now I’m worried about one of the GOP’s most interesting talents being absorbed, and formed as a national politician, by a McCain campaign that’s been deeply unimaginative on every front except the wars to win the weekly news cycle - and that seems happy, after the brief burst of risk-taking and creativity that produced the Palin pick and McCain’s strikingly post-partisan acceptance speech (and gave them a big bounce in the polls, not coincidentally), to slip back into a cynical and deeply unimaginative style.
I know that the people who’ve decided she’s Monica Goodling with a shotgun aren’t going to be persuaded by me on this point, but I think Palin really does have the potential to embody the kind of change the GOP desperately needs: In a party that’s dominated by entrenched interests, she demonstrated that it’s possible to take on the establishment and win; in a party increasingly riven by ideological feuds, she’s demonstrated that it’s possible to be a populist and a pragmatist, a social conservative on some fronts and a libertarian on others.
But a vice-presidential run isn’t the ideal place to develop that potential in the best of times, and a vice-presidential run under the tutelage of the McCain campaign is likely to produce a lot more of what we saw from Palin in her interview last night: Rigorously memorized, carefully regurgitated talking points, a determination to avoid making enormous gaffes, and not much else.
Imagine for a moment what would have happened four years ago had John Kerry said, “What the hell,” and picked Obama to be his VP candidate. Almost the same arc we’re now seeing with Palin would have happened then: conservatives howling about his inexperience; rapid digging leading to embarassing revelations; rapturous reception by the progressive community; a sterling acceptance speech; a rapid whistle-stop tour where Obama gave Kerry huge crowds; and, sooner or later, a television interview where Obama stumbled.
It is easy to say that Obama isn’t like Palin, that he wouldn’t have done that four years ago. But that’s assuming a lot. It means believing that the time he has spent over the past four years studying the issues, learning from folks like Joe Biden and Richard Lugar, had no impact on his thinking. It means thinking he is such a complete natural, that he would have handled the pressure and the spotlight effortlessly. I am a huge Obama fan, but even I don’t think that is what would have happened.
But Kerry didn’t pick him, and Obama is a far better candidate now than he would have been had he been on the ticket last time.
Sarah Palin doesn’t have that luxury. She has to learn about hundreds upon hundreds of issues and learn about them now. And no matter how able a politician she is (and she is formidable), no matter how quick a study she may be (those who think she’s dumb are wrong — she’s just not an intellectual), the pace is too much. She’s going to stumble, and stumble badly, and it’s going to hurt the campaign. It may not prevent McCain from winning. But if it does, her career may be over before it started. And even if it doesn’t she may be the new Dan Quayle, not the new face of her party.
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