The last two weeks have been nuts, what with the Clinton and Obama speeches, Hurricane Sarah, and all other things political.  And things are unlikely to slow down anytime soon, given the fact that the election is only sixty days away.

While Americans focused on the conventions (and Hurricane Gustav), world events didn’t just grind to a halt.  Over the past two weeks, there have been a number of important developments that are not only important in their own right but also may have a significant impact on the next President’s ability to govern.

Over the next few days, I’m going to try to highlight someJ of them.  Let’s start with Russia-Georgia.

In the past two weeks, the Russia-Georgia conflict has increasingly turned into a proxy (cold) war between the United States and the Russian Federation.  Russian President Medvedev has demonstrated a particular affection for Bushian bluster, making grandiose nationalistic statements about reestablishing a Russian sphere of influence that were meant as much for internal consumption as for global politics.  Meanwhile, the Bush Administration has taken several steps to bind the United States even more closely to the fate of Georgia — including a pledge of more than $1 billion in new (non-military) foreign assistance and a visit by Vice President Dick Cheney.

John McCain’s protestations notwithstanding, most Americans still do not understand what is going on or why the conflict is relevant to their lives.

For all the jokes about Cheney being sent out of the country during the Convention, the reality is that his trip was deadly serious, designed to show the Russians that the United States would not be cowed in the face of its aggression.  But it also showed Cheney’s unbelievably blinkered view of the world:  in the end, the reason the U.S. is backing Georgia is because of the latter’s decision to send troops to Iraq.

The Administration’s actions are going to make it much harder for the next President to pursue a more rational, interests-based policy while at the same time defending Georgian sovereignty.  Of course, if McCain is President, that will not be a problem.

The bottom line:  this has become a game of low-intensity chicken, with both sides acting like 12-year-old boys.  And neither side really cares to behave like adults.  Georgia, which is largely (though not entirely) the victim here, is stuck in the middle, with little hope of serious support from the West or complete withdrawal of Russian forces.  The real fear is that some further incident will cause one side or the other to ratchet up the rhetoric in a way that we’re suddenly looking at Bosnia 1914 all over again — except this time, it will be with thousands upon thousands of nukes on both sides.

For those interested in the specifics, you can find a straightforward report on the events of the past two weeks after the jump.

Background

On August 25, the Russian Parliament (Duma) and Federation Council both passed resolutions recognizing the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.  The following day, Russian President Dmitri Medvedev signed them into law.  Here’s what Medvedev had to say:

[Georgian President Mikheil] Saakashvili opted for genocide to accomplish his political objectives. By doing so he himself dashed all the hopes for the peaceful coexistence of Ossetians, Abkhazians and Georgians in a single state. . . . The Presidents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. . .appealed to Russia to recognize the state sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Federation Council and the State Duma voted in support of those appeals. . . .

Considering the freely expressed will of the Ossetian and Abkhaz peoples and being guided by the provisions of the UN Charter, the 1970 Declaration on the Principles of International Law Governing Friendly Relations Between States, the CSCE Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and other fundamental international instruments, I [have] signed Decrees on the recognition by the Russian Federation of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence.  Russia calls on other states to follow its example.

Both Georgia and the United States responded by arguing that Russia’s actions had no status in international law — ironically, the same point Russia made when the United States and many European nations recognized Kosovo’s independence earlier this year.  CNN asked Medvedev about this apparent contradiction:

No, we do not think this is a double-standard. I would like to once again draw your attention to the fact that each state can determine whether it wants to recognize a certain people as a subject of international law or not. In our opinion the situation that took place in Kosovo did not merit this decision and Kosovo did not have enough requirements for it to be recognized as a subject of international law. However,  I have to admit that not all states agreed with us and a number of other countries did recognize the independence of Kosovo.

On August 31, Medvedev gave an interview to Russia’s Channel One, during which he outlined what he called the “five principles” that will guide his stewardship of Russian foreign policy:

First, Russia recognises the primacy of the fundamental principles of international law, which define the relations between civilized peoples. We will build our relations with other countries within the framework of these principles and this concept of international law.

Second, the world should be multi-polar. A single-pole world is unacceptable. Domination is something we cannot allow. We cannot accept a world order in which one country makes all the decisions, even as serious and influential a country as the United States of America. Such a world is unstable and threatened by conflict.

Third, Russia does not want confrontation with any other country. Russia has no intention of isolating itself. We will develop friendly relations with Europe, the United States, and other countries, as much as is possible.

Fourth, protecting the lives and dignity of our citizens, wherever they may be, is an unquestionable priority for our country. Our foreign policy decisions will be based on this need. We will also protect the interests of our business community abroad. It should be clear to all that we will respond to any aggressive acts committed against us.

Finally, fifth, as is the case of other countries, there are regions in which Russia has privileged interests. These regions are home to countries with which we share special historical relations and are bound together as friends and good neighbours. We will pay particular attention to our work in these regions and build friendly ties with these countries, our close neighbours. These are the principles I will follow in carrying out our foreign policy.

It was the fifth point, where Medvedev reasserted a Russian sphere of influence, that caused shock waves in Europe and the United States, not to mention Ukraine and the Baltic states.

The following day, the EU met in Brussels to discuss Russian actions in Georgia and issued a statement condemning Russian action in Georgia and warning Russia that unless its troops were withdrawn from Georgia, the EU would suspend negotiation on a renewed Russian-EU “Partnership and Cooperation Agreement.  The EU also announced that French President Nicholas Sarkozy, who has played a leading role in trying end the conflict, would lead an EU delegation to Moscow and Tiblisi beginning next Monday, September 8. Despite the fairly tough talk, the EU in fact remains divided, with the large West European states favoring continued dialogue and the newer, East European states that border Russia favoring stronger sanctions.

The Bush Administration praised the EU’s moves and announced that Vice President Dick Cheney would travel to the region, including Georgia but not Russia.  In Tiblisi, Cheney met with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili:

Vice President Cheney, visiting here Thursday, pledged continued U.S. support for Georgia and said the Kremlin’s military actions in the country last month had “cast grave doubt on Russia’s intentions and on its reliability as an international partner. . . . America will help Georgia rebuild and regain its position as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies,” he said. . . . Calling the invasion “an illegitimate, unilateral attempt to change your country’s borders by force,” Cheney promised that the United States would continue to back Georgia’s bid for membership in the NATO alliance, an ambition that has angered Russia. “Georgia will be in our alliance,” he said.

Standing beside Saakashvili at the presidential palace in Tbilisi, Cheney called the Georgian president “fearless” and “steadfast,” and said international support for Georgia grew in part from its contribution of troops in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Rice was back in Washington announcing that the United States would provide $1 billion in new aid to Georgia to help the country rebuild.  The White House issued the following statement from President Bush:

As part of America’s contribution to this international effort, today, I am announcing $1 billion in additional economic assistance to meet Georgia’s humanitarian needs and to support its economic recovery. More than half of these funds will be made available in the near term and will support reconstruction efforts in Georgia, assist the Government of Georgia in leading the nation’s recovery, and meet ongoing humanitarian needs, including the resettlement of displaced families. The balance of the funds, together with assistance from the European Union and other partners, will help the Government of Georgia rebuild critical infrastructure and help local communities and businesses get back on their feet.

Administration officials went out of their way to emphasize that none of the money would go to military assistance, but the United States has provided such help in the past, including training.

Related posts

• Russia: Anything You Can Do I Can Make Worse
• Russia-Georgia: The Other Shoe Drops
• One of These Things is Exactly Like the Other
• Diplospeak Translator: The Condi in Crawford
• So Much for Mars