When Sarah Palin so easily exceeded expectations last night, something like 37 million Americans were watching.  That comes close to the 42 million that Obama got last week, and demonstrates just how much Americans are paying attention to this election.

But it also significantly raises the bar for John McCain.

In the best of circumstances, McCain doesn’t do well with teleprompters — his June “prebuttal” speech was so bad that even Fox News called it a disaster.  In more recent speeches, including the one he gave announcing his pick of Palin, he has worked off  a printed text rather than use a teleprompter.  Given the reports that the teleprompter malfunctioned last night during Palin’s speech, he may be even more disinclined to use one tonight.

That leaves him betwixt and between.  If he works off of a printed text, he has to look down a lot, which won’t come off well.  If he instead uses a teleprompter, he may look as bad as he did last May.  I’m sure that his aides have been working hard to improve his skills, but that doesn’t mean that he will look good, much less appear as charismatic as either Obama or Palin.

The second problem he faces is that tonight is a bit of an anticlimax.  Some of the people who tuned in out of curiosity last night arent’ going to watch his speech tonight.  He will get lower numbers than Palin — the only question is how much lower.

The third problem, and the one most out of his control, is the fact that the Giants and Redskins kick off the NFL season tonight.  The game starts at 7:00 pm EDT and should be over by 10, but what if it runs long?  Will NBC break away, leading to the political version of the Heidi Bowl?  There are some reports that McCain will delay his speech until the game is over.  But the later he goes, the smaller his viewership.  And some may suggest it shows weakness to wait.

Even if the game ends on time, many fans will turn to ESPN or other post-game coverage.  That is particularly true in New York and DC, meaning that McCain’s viewership will be hurt in two of the five largest media markets in the United States.  That means it will be almost impossible for him to match Palin’s numbers.

Add to all of this the reports that McCain is now giving a far longer speech than he originally intended.

What happens if a) McCain does poorly (especially in comparison to Palin and Obama) and b) his “ratings” are lower than Palin’s?  What happens if he goes on too long?

That could do greater damage to his chances than a Palin stumble last night would have.  In fact, it could be a major disaster.

Image via The Orlando Sentinel

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