04:45 pm
Five to Watch: McCain, Bush, and Gustav
Here’s the latest tracking on Gustav.
New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain are at roughly 30° North, 90° West on the map above. They’re the part of the red line that appears to run inland from the coast.
Don’t be fooled by the fact it’s not heading directly at New Orleans anymore. If anything, the current path is worse:
If, as currently predicted, Gustav lands west of New Orleans on Monday as a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds up to 155 mph (249 kph), its 16-foot (4.9 metre) storm surge could break through the same levees that failed three year ago.
In the face of what is likely to be one of the worst natural disasters in American history, it may seem a bit insensitive and even vulgar to talk about the storm’s political implications. But the timing and location of the storm — during the Republican National Convention and on the same path as (and on the third anniversary of) Katrina — ensures that politics are inevitably part of the bigger story.
Right now, it looks like the Republicans are going to go forward with the Convention. They have promised to make it a more subdued, muted affair, but you can bet that every media outlet in town (well, everyone other than Fox) is going to be cruising for revelers.
In addition, the White House has announced that neither President George W. Bush nor Vice President Lord Voldemort Dick Cheney will attend the convention (which doesn’t preclude their addressing it via a live feed or even videotape). The Cheney announcement alone may lead some delegates to celebrate — the last thing McCain wanted (other than, of course, Hurricane Gustav) was that guy showing up.
John McCain has promised that the convention will not be a celebration, and is visiting the Mississippi Gulf Coast today apparently to show just how cynical he can be he really truly does care a whole lot about the danger Gustav poses. Barack Obama, smartly in my opinion, is staying away and not criticizing McCain’s decision.
Here are five issues to watch as Gustav makes landfall:
1. The mainstream media will portray McCain’s visit to Mississippi as a sign of leadership rather than as a cynical ploy or a foolishly rash act (after all, we’re talking about a person who wants to be the next POTUS putting himself in the way of a “monster” storm). The one exception is Anderson Cooper, who may just go postal on McCain, just as he did three years ago on New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, Senator Mary Landrieu, and others.
2. No matter what the Republicans do in St. Paul, they’re facing a split screen convention, with coverage of the devastation competing with their rhetoric and ruffles. It is a comparison from which they cannot benefit, no matter how muted or subdued they make the event. And iff New Orleans is badly damaged by the storm — even if its residents evacuate — they’re going to find it almost impossible to hold the media’s (and by extension the public’s) attention.
3. Gustav is both bad news and good news for the McCain campaign. The bad news (other than the issue of a split screen convention) is that Gustav will cost McCain all or part of his convention bounce — even if it fails to hit New Orleans. The good news is that Ron Paul’s alternative convention will disappear off the radar.
4. No matter what happens — good or bad, direct hit on New Orleans or not — the Administration (and more than likely the McCain campaign) will attempt to portray the federal response to the crisis as fast, smart, and a reflection of the lessons learned from Katrina. And chances are that it will be an outright lie. The big question is not what the Administration will say, but rather how the media responds. Again, Anderson Cooper will be a bellwether.
5. Sooner or later, a prominent Democrat (not Obama or Biden, but someone) will be tempted to talk about how great it is that Gustav is hitting New Orleans just when the Republicans are holding their convention (much as Michael Moore did on MSNBC Friday night). If that Democrat fails to shut the hell up, it will negate any and all bad publicity for the Republicans. The most likely purveyor of such idiocies is New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, who once again will be portrayed by Republicans as utterly incompetent.
Both parties have to be careful here. Gustav is a potential tragedy in the making, and hundreds if not thousands of people will lose their lives. Hundreds of thousands will at best find themselves displaced and at worst homeless. Any effort by either candidate (or party) to use this terrible development for political ends will not play well either on the Gulf Coast or in the rest of the country.
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