08:45 am
Hurricane Gustav: Potential Disaster for McCain? (UPDATED)
I am frequently critical of those who look at every story through the lens of politics, but occasionally, you can’t really avoid it. This is one such instance.
Hurricane Gustav, which just ripped through Haiti, may be heading to the United States. One of its possible targets: New Orleans. Here’s the latest 5-day track forecast from the National Hurricane Center.
Now take a look at the path taken by Katrina three years ago.
So if Gustav stays on its projected path, it will make landfall southwest of Port Sulphur, which is about 47 miles south-southeast of New Orleans. That is almost exactly where Katrina made landfall.
And if Gustav stays at its current speed, it will hit somewhere around 8 pm Monday night. That will be right in the middle of the first night of the Republican National Convention. An evening whose speaker lineup includes Joe Lieberman, Dick Cheney, and George Bush.
Uh oh.
This could hurt McCain in a number of ways.
First, it will distract attention from the convention — CNN and MSNBC will break away from coverage for updates. And if it’s heading straight towards New Orleans, those updates are likely to overwhelm the political coverage.
Second, it’s likely to keep Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, one of the rising stars of the Republican Party and a dark horse VP candidate, from attending. I don’t see how he can be in St. Paul if this thing has the potential to wreak havoc in his home state.
Third, the media will make sure that everyone remembers that it is happening three years (almost to the day) after Katrina ravaged New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
Lest we forget, the Bush Administration didn’t exactly have its best days during the Katrina disaster. I would bet good money that some network will track down Mike “Heckuva Job Brownie” Brown (no relation, thank Buddha) to provide analysis — and remind everyone of the ineptitude of the Bush Administration in the face of one of the worst natural disasters in American history.
Think that McCain has been on the phone to Bush about this yet?
It is my sincere hope that Gustav turns out to be a false alarm — that it loses strength, dies out over open water, and does little or no damage. The reality is that New Orleans isn’t ready — in fact, it may not survive another direct hit this soon. Far too many will suffer.
But it does make me wonder how the theocons — especially those who claimed that Katrina was God’s punishment for the wickedness of New Orleans — will explain away the timing of this one. And should the Bush Administration fail to respond effectively this time around, it might be game, set, and match for John McCain.
UPDATE: The National Hurricane Center has revised its projected path and landfall estimation. Gustav is now more likely to hit a little further — but not that much further — west of Port Sulphur, and will not make landfall until sometime Tuesday.