01:15 pm
A Path to Victory for McCain — Maybe the Only One
I know that today is going to be taken up with Obamaveepalooza, but something just occurred to me about McCain’s campaign.
Despite McCain’s recent gains, I remain convinced that Obama is going to win, and probably win with a significant majority in the electoral college. McCain’s “celebrity” attacks really only put him in striking distance, and barring a major screw-up by the Obama campaign, an Obama collapse in the debates, or the capture of bin Laden, I don’t see him getting any closer — especially now that his signature issue, Iraq, is for all intents and purposes, off the table.
So his choice of vice presidents is one of his last opportunities to change the game.
By all accounts, there are four finalists: Lieberman, Ridge, Romney, and Pawlenty. Three of the four are anethema to right-wing evangelicals: Lieberman and Ridge because of their pro-choice views, Romney because he’s a Mormon. Choosing any of them will depress turnout, and choosing a pro-choice candidate may so depress the base that Obama will win in a walk (which is why I’m hoping he’ll do it). And Pawlenty is the Tim Kaine of Republican politics: mild-mannered milquetoast with with a side of boring.
Given the current kerfuffle about the 206 homes McCain owns, he’s missing an opportunity here. Speaking not as a partisan but as an analyst, the right choice is. . .none of the above.
Only one candidate would turn out base in big numbers and at the same time cut the “rich and out of touch” stories off at the knees.
Mike Huckabee.
Huckabee makes evangelicals enthusiastic, excites economic populists (some of whom remain unmoved by Obama), and takes states like North Carolina, Georgia and even Indiana off the table.
And thanks to Chuck Norris, Huckabee might even bring back the Dungeons and Dragons/World of Warcraft nerd vote.
Yes, the Club for Growth, Grover Norquist, and other economic conservatives would probably have an aneurysm. And yes, it may drive some libertarians to support either Barr or Obama. But no other choice would do more to change the paradigm. And for McCain, I think Huckabee’s upsides far outweigh his downsides.
Keep in mind I’m not advocating for Huckabee. But if I were in McCain’s shoes, that’s who I’d pick.
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