10:41 pm
Maliki Gets Bolder
Iraqi Prime Minister Nour al-Maliki is getting bolder: he wants American troops to leave, and to leave as soon as possible:
American officials privately admit being concerned that Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has become “overconfident” about his government’s ability to manage without US combat troops, according to an Iraq analyst who just returned from a trip to Iraq arranged by US commander General David Petraeus. . . .
Maliki’s new sense of confidence has been accompanied by a new political identity as a nationalist foe of the occupation, according to Kahl. “He is successfully fashioning himself as an Iraqi hero who kicked the Americans out. That makes him difficult to negotiate with.”
To make matters worse for the Bush Administration, Maliki also isn’t happy with some of its key allies:
One of the consequences of Maliki’s perception of the new power relations in Iraq is that he is even less inclined than before to make accommodations with former Sunni insurgents now on the US payroll in the militias called “Sons of Iraq”.
This last point tracks with Dr. Irak over at Abu Muqawama:
Dr. iRack has been warning for months that their were signs that the Maliki government was planning to turn on the sahwa/Awakening groups/Sons of Iraq. Maliki considers the SoIs thugs and terrorists who should not be accommodated. Dr. iRack heard this often and repeatedly during his recent Baghdad visit. In the past few months, there have been growing signs that Maliki and his allies are (1) stalling SoI integration into the Iraqi security forces; (2) collaborating with other Iraqi parties to limit political participation by sahwa groups; and (3) arresting SoI members or chasing them out of the country. Dr. iRack has also heard credible rumors that Maliki hopes that his provocative treatment of the SoIs will encourage them to start a fight, giving Maliki an excuse to bring the Iraqi security forces down on them. Hard. . . .This is a story that all Iraq watchers should keep a VERY close eye on. Maliki may be making his move.
It’s too early to tell whether Maliki is canny, overconfident, or suffering from hubris. But it is increasingly possible that Maliki will settle the debate over a long-term American presence in Iraq sooner than anyone — including McCain and Obama — anticipated.
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