07:47 pm
How Do You Solve a Problem Like Vladimir?
With all the debate these days about the future of Russian-American relations, there’s one simple bit of analysis I haven’t yet seen (perhaps it’s oversimplistic, but that never stopped me before).
A scorecard. In what areas do we need the Russians? In what areas do the Russians need us? What would each side lose if relations were to go from bad to worse?
What follows is a first, rough attempt to provide that perspective.
The United States needs Russia to
- help contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions;
- remain a member in good standing in the six-party talks on the future of North Korean nukes;
- cooperate with us on the war on terror;
- continue the Nunn-Lugar process, which seeks to reduce significantly nuclear weapons stockpiles;
- ensure implementation of the so-called 123 agreement on civil nuclear cooperation;
- continue talks on renewal of the START I and START II treaties, which are scheduled to expire in 2009 and 2012;
- reverse its decision to suspend its compliance with the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe;
- tolerate NATO expansion.
Russia needs the United States to
- continue its significant investment in the Russian economy;
- accede to Russia’s application to join the World Trade Organization;
- support Russia’s continued membership in the G-8.
See a pattern here? Russia needs the United States for economic reasons. The United States needs Russia for security reasons. Unfortunately for the United States, Russia can find other willing partners on economic issues. But the United States cannot find others to fill the role played by Russia in nuclear non-proliferation.
Advantage, Russia.
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