10:00 am
Five to Watch: The Rest of the World
Between the U.S. Presidential election and the Beijing Olympics, there isn’t much space on the Intertubes or the cabletubes for other stories. And I understand that The Washington Postdated is running a five-part series on McCain’s wacky aunt, so they’re not going to be much help either.
But that doesn’t mean the rest of the world has taken a break. Here are five stories worth watching in the coming weeks:
1. Bolivia. This Sunday, voters will go to the polls to decide whether to recall Bolivian President Evo Morales (an ally of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez), the Vice President, and nine provincial governors — many of whom are Morales critics. Originally envisioned as a way to end the political impasse between Morales and his opponents, the vote instead has exacerbated tensions, and could strengthen separatist sentiment in four provinces. In the lead-up to the vote, Chavez and Argentinian President Cristina Kirchner had to cancel a planned meeting with Morales as a result of the unrest, and Morales had to relocate planned independence celebrations to La Paz from the opposition-controlled Sucre after opposition supporters blockaded the airport.
2. Rwanda-France. On Tuesday, Rwanda issued a report formally accusing French government officials of complicity in the 1994 genocide. Rwanda President Paul Kagame, who has steered Rwanda away from the francophone bloc and towards a closer relationship with the United States, cut ties with the French government back in 2006 as a result of a French judge’s efforts to have him charged for allegedly playing a role in the death of President Habyarimana — an event that either triggered the genocide or was used as an excuse for its genesis. Two separate issues appear to be at play here: questions about French complicity, which may have included training of and advice to the pre-genocide army, and the role of Kagame’s RPF movement, which human rights groups say is responsible for war crimes (albeit not genocide).
3. Mauritania. On Wednesday, a group of Army officers seized power from the first-ever democratically elected government in Mauritania. The coup took place after Mauritanian President Sidi Ould Cheikh Abdallahi attempted to fire four senior military officers — who instead led the coup. The President and Prime Minister are both under house arrest, and while the new leaders have promised new elections, a history of coups and military rule make such an outcome unlikely. The recent discovery of significant oil reserves further complicates matters.
4. Iraq. Think everything in Iraq is peachy? Think again. The Parliament recessed on Wednesday without passing an essential provincial elections bill, hampering further efforts at reconciliation dependent on the vote’s outcome. The sticking point is Kirkuk, which the Kurds want to annex but other factions want to keep separate. Once again, oil is playing a role — Kirkuk has lots of it. Perhaps the worst news is that the Iraqis decided the best course of action at this point is to appoint yet another commission to study the matter while the rest of the Council of Representatives went on vacation.
5. Pakistan. Perhaps the biggest mess in the world today, Pakistan continues to find new ways to destabilize itself. As a result of the secret police’s (and perhaps the military’s) role in the bombing of India’s embassy in Kabul, U.S.-Pakistani relations are the worst they’ve ever been. The military’s accomodation of the Taliban and al Qaeda in the Northwest Frontier Province hasn’t helped much either. Meanwhile, Parliament is debating whether to impeach President Pervez Musharaf at the very moment that Musharaf has headed to Beijing for the Olympics. With no one apparently in charge and the ISI and military facing increasing calls for reform, another coup is a real possibility. This time, however, the generals are unlikely to continue to pursue policies favorable to American interests.