10:30 am
Furious 5: What to Watch for at the Controlympics
We’re starting a new feature here at Undiplomatic, one we’re calling the Furious Five. Periodically, we’ll put together a list of five questions or topics on diplomacy, politics, pop culture, or whatever else happens to be on our minds. Regardless of the subject, it’s our hope to provoke discussion and debate.
This week, we’ll take a look at the Olympics — or what I’m now calling the Controlympics. There are tons of sites out there where you can find out who are the favorites for the gold in each event, so don’t look for that here. Instead, let’s raise some of the political questions.
1. Is the terrorism threat genuine? In recent weeks there have been a spate of bus bombings in China, albeit at some distance from Beijing, as well as a grenade attack in Xinjiang that killed 16 policemen. A heretofore unknown Xinjiang separatist group has claimed responsibility, but the Chinese have dismissed their claims without offering a plausible alternative theory. Although a major attack along the lines of Munich is unlikely, minor incidents like the bombing in Atlanta remain plausible. In such a tense atmosphere, the security forces are going to be on hair-trigger alert, meaning that peaceful protests and even spontaneity and silliness might be suppressed brutally.
2. How will George Bush, Gordon Brown, Nicholas Sarkozy and other world leaders respond if a political protest takes place in their presence? There has been plenty of speculation about whether Tibetans, Falun Gong, and other groups will try to stage a protest of some kind, as well as questions about whether the Chinese response will distinguish between terrorism and nonviolent speech. In addition, the Genocide Intervention Network and other groups have called on world leaders to boycott the Olympic Opening Ceremony to protest Chinese human rights violations — an effort that, with the exception of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, has largely fallen on deaf ears. But the real question is what Bush and company will do if a demonstration takes place while they are present — especially if the Chinese respond brutally? Do they walk out? Do they feebly protest? Do they leave the country? This is no small issue. The Chinese are prickly as it is, and any decision by world leaders to react negatively to a crackdown is likely to create a huge mess.
3. How will Chinese officials react to athletes wearing masks? The issue is less the pollution itself than how it may affect Chinese sensitivities. With pollution unlikely to abate significantly over the next few days, the odds are pretty good that some athlete is going to don a mask at some point. How will officials react? Will they take it away? Ban cameras? And how will the Chinese netroots react?
4. How will the U.S.-China rivalry play out? The Olympics, for all the IOC’s protests otherwise, are about countries trying to outdo one another, not bringing the world together. The Chinese have repeatedly stated their desire to win more medals than any other country. That sets them up to compete with — and potentially come into conflict with the United States, the traditional medal leader. As China and the U.S. trade medals, how will each country’s citizens respond? What will be the reaction in the United States, if the Chinese boo an American athlete (or celebrate too boisterously a Chinese victory)? Can the Chinese avoid the temptation to strut should they succeed in winning the most medals? How will all this affect relations?
5. Will the United States flag-bearer dip the American flag when walking past the review stand? This may seem like a minor point, but this single moment may crystallize how each country regards the other. At the opening ceremonies, each team is led by a flag-bearer, each of whom traditionally dips their nation’s flag when passing the host country’s reviewing stand. The one exception is the United States, whose flag-bearers have never dipped the flag at any Olympics — ostensibly to demonstrate our independence and strength. If the American flag stands tall, how will the Chinese in the stadium respond? And if it dips, how will Americans back home react? The end result could be a miniature firestorm on the Internet, with China’s Anti-CNN crowd and America’s wingnuts lobbing verbal grenades at one another.
That’s it for this week — please share your thoughts below, as well as any ideas about future Furious Fives.
Photo: via mashroms used under a Creative Commons license.
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