06:30 am
Obama, Europe and Gallup: A Berlin Bounce?
I continue to be fascinated by this. According to Gallup, Obama got almost no bounce from Iraq and Afghanistan, but does seem to be enjoying a not-insignificant bump from Berlin.
Here are Gallup’s own headlines from the last four days:
Thursday: Obama Maintains Slim Edge over McCain
Friday: Obama by 6, Is There a Europe Effect?
Saturday: Obama Retains Lead, 48% to 41%
Sunday: Obama 49%, McCain 40%
Marbury thinks this may be the turning point. Nate Silver over at 538.com (a must read, BTW), not so much.
My question is not whether the bounce is real, but rather whether the bounce is really from the Berlin speech. I think it’s more likely that we’re seeing a slightly delayed reaction to Iraqi Prime Minister Nour al-Maliki’s embrace of the Obama timetable, and perhaps even a negative reaction by voters to McCain’s subsequent anger and bitterness.
If that’s the case, then this uptick is about Iraq, and the question of a Berlin bounce (or non-bounce) will reveal itself only in the coming days. So I am going to stick to my guns for now, and predict that we’ll see a a Berlin slump as soon as tomorrow.
But either way, these numbers do not bode well for McCain. If they are the result of Obama’s Iraq trip, then McCain has won the surge but lost the election. If they are from the Berlin speech, then Obama will get an even bigger bump after his August 23rd acceptance speech in front of 80,000 supporters — perhaps one big enough to bounce McCain right off the electoral map.
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